BAL vs NYY prediction for May 1, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects NYY 5.0 - BAL 4.3. NYY is favored with a 57.5% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 9.2 total runs.
NYY
5.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
BAL
4.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYYBAL
-1.5
Run Line (NYY)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.4% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
BAL
246
NYY
357
Projected
NYY 5.0 — BAL 4.3
Actual
NYY 7 — BAL 2
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Cade Povich L
BAL
FF37%92 mph17% whiff
CU22%79 mph27% whiff
CH15%84 mph34% whiff
Will Warren R
NYY
FF43%94 mph22% whiff
SI25%94 mph18% whiff
ST23%84 mph17% whiff
Weather Impact
Yankee Stadium
58°F11 mph wind
HR: 0.992 Total: 0.995
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
BAL
3.62ERA
3.33FIP
11.04K/9
3.49BB/9
1.22WHIP
NYY
3.80ERA
3.86FIP
8.75K/9
3.48BB/9
1.36WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-38.3% EV
-137
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-9.6% EV
+114
ML HOME
-9.4% EV
-185
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
-7.2% EV
-104
F5_ML HOME
-7.2% EV
-179
ML AWAY
+4.6% EV
+154
First 5 Innings & NRFI
BAL F5
2.2 runs
35.2% win
NYY F5
2.9 runs
50.2% win
F5 Total
5.2
NRFI
52.7%
YRFI
47.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.99
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.9
Over 0.5 HR
94%
Over 1.5 HR
78%
No HR
6%
Ben Rice NYY30.0%
ISO: 0.445 | Barrel: 20.0% | vs Cade Povich | Park: 1.10x
Aaron Judge NYY30.0%
ISO: 0.469 | Barrel: 20.0% | vs Cade Povich | Park: 1.10x Platoon: 1.12x
Samuel Basallo BAL26.1%
ISO: 0.226 | Barrel: 11.9% | vs Will Warren | Park: 1.10x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Cade Povich
0.0 K projected
BAL | K/9: 0.0
Will Warren
0.0 K projected
NYY | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
BAL8 injured
Ryan Helsley RP15-DAY-IL
Jackson Holliday 2B10-DAY-IL
Trevor Rogers SP15-DAY-IL
Hans Crouse RPDAY-TO-DAY
Will Robertson LFDAY-TO-DAY
Ryan Noda 1BDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
NYY8 injured
Carlos Rodon SP15-DAY-IL
Giancarlo Stanton DH10-DAY-IL
Jasson Dominguez LFDAY-TO-DAY
Anthony Volpe SS10-DAY-IL
Gerrit Cole SP15-DAY-IL
Angel Chivilli RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1GREEN ZONE60.0% WR (n=50)
Market underpricing BAL because Yankee Stadium's home field advantage (1.1 park factor) and NYY record overshadow superior BAL starter (Povich 2.37 ERA vs Warren 2.80 ERA). Povich's 0.43 ERA edge not reflected in BAL +154 odds. This is a classic market trap favoring the big-market home team.
Key Factors
- Cade Povich ERA 2.37 vs Will Warren ERA 2.80 = +0.43 ERA edge to BAL despite dog odds
- Povich mechanics superior (B command vs B+); both have solid arsenals
- NYY home field (1.1 park factor adds ~0.5 HR premium) partially balanced by Povich edge
- BAL bullpen slightly better (3.62 ERA vs 3.8 ERA)
- Market implying 60.6% NYY win but pitcher quality suggests ~53-55% is more fair
Risk Factors
- Yankee Stadium genuinely favors home team in HR-rate situations
- NYY record/reputation may legitimately drive execution edge (harder to quantify)
- Small edge (1.8%) means variance will dominate short term
PITCHER MISMATCH FOR UNDERDOGMARKET BIAS HOME TEAMGREEN ZONE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
NYY 57.5%
-9.6 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-9.6 pts
Total
8.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →