SF vs TB prediction for May 1, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects TB 3.6 - SF 3.5. TB is favored with a 52.7% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 7.0 total runs.
TB
3.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
SF
3.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
TBSF
-1.5
Run Line (TB)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SF
245
TB
246
Projected
TB 3.6 — SF 3.5
Actual
TB 3 — SF 0
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Robbie Ray L
SF
FF49%93 mph20% whiff
SL33%85 mph35% whiff
CH12%85 mph35% whiff
Shane McClanahan L
TB
FF39%95 mph13% whiff
CH27%86 mph35% whiff
SL25%88 mph29% whiff
Weather Impact
Tropicana Field
79°F9 mph windRoof: closed
HR: 1.000 Total: 1.000
Indoor (neutral)
Bullpen Comparison
SF
3.22ERA
3.85FIP
9.20K/9
4.64BB/9
1.31WHIP
TB
5.21ERA
4.88FIP
8.29K/9
4.45BB/9
1.50WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-38.7% EV
-175
TOTAL OVER 7.5
-21.0% EV
-115
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-13.6% EV
+146
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
+12.6% EV
-105
ML HOME
-8.7% EV
-143
NRFI NRFI
+7.9% EV
-128
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SF F5
1.8 runs
36.8% win
TB F5
2.1 runs
44.3% win
F5 Total
3.9
NRFI
63.2%
YRFI
36.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.71
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.9
Over 0.5 HR
86%
Over 1.5 HR
58%
No HR
14%
Junior Caminero TB30.0%
ISO: 0.160 | Barrel: 13.3% | vs Robbie Ray | Park: 0.92x Platoon: 1.12x
Casey Schmitt SF20.5%
ISO: 0.200 | Barrel: 11.8% | vs Shane McClanahan | Park: 0.92x Platoon: 1.12x
Jonny DeLuca TB19.3%
ISO: 0.360 | Barrel: 9.2% | vs Robbie Ray | Park: 0.92x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Robbie Ray
0.0 K projected
SF | K/9: 0.0
Shane McClanahan
0.0 K projected
TB | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SF8 injured
Jared Oliva CF60-DAY-IL
Daniel Susac C10-DAY-IL
Jason Foley RP60-DAY-IL
Harrison Bader CF10-DAY-IL
Jose Butto RP60-DAY-IL
Sam Hentges RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
TB8 injured
Gavin Lux LF10-DAY-IL
Garrett Cleavinger RP15-DAY-IL
Edwin Uceta RP60-DAY-IL
TJ Nichols PDAY-TO-DAY
Tre' Morgan 1BDAY-TO-DAY
Alfredo Zarraga RPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1GREEN ZONE56.7% WR (n=9)
Two competent pitchers (Ray 2.92 ERA, McClanahan 4.22 ERA) in neutral dome environment (Tropicana retractable = no weather edge) combine with SF's elite bullpen (3.22 ERA, 1.398 quality) vs TB's weak bullpen (5.21 ERA, 0.864) to create under value. Model 7.04 total vs market 7.5 = 12.6% under edge.
Key Factors
- Ray (2.92 ERA) better than McClanahan (4.22 ERA) but both competent
- SF bullpen elite (3.22 ERA, 1.398 quality, K9 9.2) vs TB weak (5.21 ERA, 0.864 quality)
- Tropicana Field retractable closed = neutral weather (no wind, neutral HR factor)
- NRFI edge 7.9% (model 60.6%) — strong early-inning suppression expected
- Model 7.04 total suggests 0.46-run undervalue vs market 7.5
Risk Factors
- TB can score if McClanahan struggles (4.22 ERA is ordinary)
- Indoor dome reduces weather advantage perception but doesn't eliminate bullpen leverage
- Market may already respect SF bullpen (line at 7.5 is conservative)
BULLPEN FATIGUEPITCHER MISMATCH FAVOR SFNRFI EDGEGREEN ZONE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
TB 52.7%
-13.6 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-13.6 pts
Total
7.5
+12.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →