SF vs TB prediction for May 1, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects TB 3.6 - SF 3.5. TB is favored with a 52.7% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 7.0 total runs.
TB
3.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
SF
3.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
TBSF
-1.5
Run Line (TB)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.7% (2,610 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SF
245
TB
246
Projected
TB 3.6 — SF 3.5
Actual
TB 3 — SF 0
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Robbie Ray L
SF
FF49%93 mph20% whiff
SL33%85 mph35% whiff
CH12%85 mph35% whiff
Shane McClanahan L
TB
FF39%95 mph13% whiff
CH27%86 mph35% whiff
SL25%88 mph29% whiff
Weather Impact
Tropicana Field
79°F9 mph windRoof: closed
HR: 1.000 Total: 1.000
Indoor (neutral)
Bullpen Comparison
SF
3.22ERA
3.85FIP
9.20K/9
4.64BB/9
1.31WHIP
TB
5.21ERA
4.88FIP
8.29K/9
4.45BB/9
1.50WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-38.7% EV
-175
TOTAL OVER 7.5
-21.0% EV
-115
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-13.6% EV
+146
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
+12.6% EV
-105
ML HOME
-8.7% EV
-143
NRFI NRFI
+7.9% EV
-128
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SF F5
1.8 runs
36.8% win
TB F5
2.1 runs
44.3% win
F5 Total
3.9
NRFI
63.2%
YRFI
36.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.71
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.9
Over 0.5 HR
86%
Over 1.5 HR
58%
No HR
14%
Junior Caminero TB30.0%
ISO: 0.160 | Barrel: 13.3% | vs Robbie Ray | Park: 0.92x Platoon: 1.12x
Casey Schmitt SF20.5%
ISO: 0.200 | Barrel: 11.8% | vs Shane McClanahan | Park: 0.92x Platoon: 1.12x
Jonny DeLuca TB19.3%
ISO: 0.360 | Barrel: 9.2% | vs Robbie Ray | Park: 0.92x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Robbie Ray
0.0 K projected
SF | K/9: 0.0
Shane McClanahan
0.0 K projected
TB | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SF8 injured
Jared Oliva CF60-DAY-IL
Daniel Susac C10-DAY-IL
Jason Foley RP60-DAY-IL
Harrison Bader CF10-DAY-IL
Jose Butto RP60-DAY-IL
Sam Hentges RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
TB8 injured
Gavin Lux LF10-DAY-IL
Garrett Cleavinger RP15-DAY-IL
Edwin Uceta RP60-DAY-IL
TJ Nichols PDAY-TO-DAY
Tre' Morgan 1BDAY-TO-DAY
Alfredo Zarraga RPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1GREEN ZONE56.7% WR (n=9)
Two competent pitchers (Ray 2.92 ERA, McClanahan 4.22 ERA) in neutral dome environment (Tropicana retractable = no weather edge) combine with SF's elite bullpen (3.22 ERA, 1.398 quality) vs TB's weak bullpen (5.21 ERA, 0.864) to create under value. Model 7.04 total vs market 7.5 = 12.6% under edge.
Key Factors
- Ray (2.92 ERA) better than McClanahan (4.22 ERA) but both competent
- SF bullpen elite (3.22 ERA, 1.398 quality, K9 9.2) vs TB weak (5.21 ERA, 0.864 quality)
- Tropicana Field retractable closed = neutral weather (no wind, neutral HR factor)
- NRFI edge 7.9% (model 60.6%) — strong early-inning suppression expected
- Model 7.04 total suggests 0.46-run undervalue vs market 7.5
Risk Factors
- TB can score if McClanahan struggles (4.22 ERA is ordinary)
- Indoor dome reduces weather advantage perception but doesn't eliminate bullpen leverage
- Market may already respect SF bullpen (line at 7.5 is conservative)
BULLPEN FATIGUEPITCHER MISMATCH FAVOR SFNRFI EDGEGREEN ZONE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
TB 52.7%
-13.6 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-13.6 pts
Total
7.5
+12.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →