HOU vs BOS prediction for May 1, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects BOS 3.6 - HOU 5.1. HOU is favored with a 62.1% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 8.8 total runs.
BOS
3.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
HOU
5.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
BOSHOU
+1.5
Run Line (BOS)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 61.6% (2,610 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
HOU
357
BOS
246
Projected
BOS 3.6 — HOU 5.1
Actual
BOS 3 — HOU 1
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Mike Burrows R
HOU
FF26%95 mph10% whiff
CH25%87 mph38% whiff
SL18%90 mph32% whiff
Jake Bennett L
BOS
Weather Impact
Fenway Park
59°F8 mph wind
HR: 0.971 Total: 0.982
7mph in
Bullpen Comparison
HOU
6.38ERA
5.61FIP
8.83K/9
6.18BB/9
1.62WHIP
BOS
4.04ERA
4.77FIP
8.40K/9
3.69BB/9
1.26WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-49.6% EV
-200
ML HOME
-23.9% EV
-120
TOTAL OVER 9.0
-23.1% EV
-118
F5_ML HOME
-21.9% EV
-112
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
+19.3% EV
+164
ML AWAY
+18.0% EV
+102
First 5 Innings & NRFI
HOU F5
2.9 runs
52.4% win
BOS F5
2.0 runs
32.8% win
F5 Total
4.9
NRFI
55.9%
YRFI
44.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.93
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.0
Over 0.5 HR
86%
Over 1.5 HR
60%
No HR
14%
Yordan Alvarez HOU30.0%
ISO: 0.346 | Barrel: 20.0% | vs Jake Bennett | Park: 1.08x Platoon: 1.12x
Willson Contreras BOS30.0%
ISO: 0.190 | Barrel: 12.9% | vs Mike Burrows | Park: 1.08x
Wilyer Abreu BOS30.0%
ISO: 0.220 | Barrel: 8.7% | vs Mike Burrows | Park: 1.08x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Mike Burrows
0.0 K projected
HOU | K/9: 0.0
Jake Bennett
0.0 K projected
BOS | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
HOU8 injured
Tatsuya Imai SP15-DAY-IL
Ryan Weiss RPPATERNITY
Jeremy Pena SS10-DAY-IL
Hunter Brown SP15-DAY-IL
Nate Pearson RP15-DAY-IL
Taylor Trammell CF10-DAY-IL
+2 more
BOS8 injured
Garrett Crochet SP15-DAY-IL
Justin Slaten RP15-DAY-IL
Sonny Gray SP15-DAY-IL
Patrick Sandoval SP15-DAY-IL
Triston Casas 1B60-DAY-IL
Kutter Crawford SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -2RED ZONE42.7% WR (n=133)
Jake Bennett (HOU) is TBD pitcher with zero Bayesian ERA data — critical data integrity failure. Model is projecting HOU 62.1% win on missing information, making edge unreliable. Even though Mike Burrows is poor (6.75 ERA), Bennett's uncertainty cancels any edge.
Key Factors
- Jake Bennett: ZERO pitch data, ZERO ERA data, ZERO grades — cannot assess arm quality
- Mike Burrows: 6.75 ERA, poor command (0.423 stuff) — is bad but Bennett quality unknown
- HOU bullpen elite (6.38 ERA) — wait, that's POOR. HOU bullpen is 6.38 ERA (worst in sample)
- Market respecting uncertainty by keeping odds tight (-120 HOU)
- Fenway park factor 1.08 (slight HRs boost to home team)
Risk Factors
- TBD pitcher is automatic SKIP — violates data integrity principle
- Even if Bennett is average, HOU bullpen weakness (6.38 ERA, 0.705 quality) is severe liability
- Burrows (6.75 ERA) can get shelled; so can any HOU reliever
TBD PITCHERDATA INTEGRITYRED ZONEBULLPEN FATIGUE RISK
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
HOU 62.1%
-49.6 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-49.6 pts
Total
9.0
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →