HOU vs BOS prediction for May 1, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects BOS 3.6 - HOU 5.1. HOU is favored with a 62.1% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 8.8 total runs.
BOS
3.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
HOU
5.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
BOSHOU
+1.5
Run Line (BOS)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 65.3% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
HOU
357
BOS
246
Projected
BOS 3.6 — HOU 5.1
Actual
BOS 3 — HOU 1
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Mike Burrows R
HOU
FF26%95 mph10% whiff
CH25%87 mph38% whiff
SL18%90 mph32% whiff
Jake Bennett L
BOS
Weather Impact
Fenway Park
59°F8 mph wind
HR: 0.971 Total: 0.982
7mph in
Bullpen Comparison
HOU
6.38ERA
5.61FIP
8.83K/9
6.18BB/9
1.62WHIP
BOS
4.04ERA
4.77FIP
8.40K/9
3.69BB/9
1.26WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-49.6% EV
-200
ML HOME
-23.9% EV
-120
TOTAL OVER 9.0
-23.1% EV
-118
F5_ML HOME
-21.9% EV
-112
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
+19.3% EV
+164
ML AWAY
+18.0% EV
+102
First 5 Innings & NRFI
HOU F5
2.9 runs
52.4% win
BOS F5
2.0 runs
32.8% win
F5 Total
4.9
NRFI
55.9%
YRFI
44.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.93
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.0
Over 0.5 HR
86%
Over 1.5 HR
60%
No HR
14%
Yordan Alvarez HOU30.0%
ISO: 0.346 | Barrel: 20.0% | vs Jake Bennett | Park: 1.08x Platoon: 1.12x
Willson Contreras BOS30.0%
ISO: 0.190 | Barrel: 12.9% | vs Mike Burrows | Park: 1.08x
Wilyer Abreu BOS30.0%
ISO: 0.220 | Barrel: 8.7% | vs Mike Burrows | Park: 1.08x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Mike Burrows
0.0 K projected
HOU | K/9: 0.0
Jake Bennett
0.0 K projected
BOS | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
HOU8 injured
Tatsuya Imai SP15-DAY-IL
Ryan Weiss RPPATERNITY
Jeremy Pena SS10-DAY-IL
Hunter Brown SP15-DAY-IL
Nate Pearson RP15-DAY-IL
Taylor Trammell CF10-DAY-IL
+2 more
BOS8 injured
Garrett Crochet SP15-DAY-IL
Justin Slaten RP15-DAY-IL
Sonny Gray SP15-DAY-IL
Patrick Sandoval SP15-DAY-IL
Triston Casas 1B60-DAY-IL
Kutter Crawford SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -2RED ZONE42.7% WR (n=133)
Jake Bennett (HOU) is TBD pitcher with zero Bayesian ERA data — critical data integrity failure. Model is projecting HOU 62.1% win on missing information, making edge unreliable. Even though Mike Burrows is poor (6.75 ERA), Bennett's uncertainty cancels any edge.
Key Factors
- Jake Bennett: ZERO pitch data, ZERO ERA data, ZERO grades — cannot assess arm quality
- Mike Burrows: 6.75 ERA, poor command (0.423 stuff) — is bad but Bennett quality unknown
- HOU bullpen elite (6.38 ERA) — wait, that's POOR. HOU bullpen is 6.38 ERA (worst in sample)
- Market respecting uncertainty by keeping odds tight (-120 HOU)
- Fenway park factor 1.08 (slight HRs boost to home team)
Risk Factors
- TBD pitcher is automatic SKIP — violates data integrity principle
- Even if Bennett is average, HOU bullpen weakness (6.38 ERA, 0.705 quality) is severe liability
- Burrows (6.75 ERA) can get shelled; so can any HOU reliever
TBD PITCHERDATA INTEGRITYRED ZONEBULLPEN FATIGUE RISK
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
HOU 62.1%
-49.6 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-49.6 pts
Total
9.0
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →