TEX vs DET prediction for May 1, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects DET 4.0 - TEX 4.2. DET is favored with a 50.1% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 8.2 total runs.
DET
4.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
TEX
4.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
DETTEX
+1.5
Run Line (DET)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 49.8% (2,610 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TEX
246
DET
246
Projected
DET 4.0 — TEX 4.2
Actual
DET 4 — TEX 5
Starting Pitcher Matchup
MacKenzie Gore L
TEX
FF43%96 mph26% whiff
CU22%82 mph27% whiff
CH13%87 mph29% whiff
Jack Flaherty R
DET
FF46%93 mph13% whiff
SL25%85 mph27% whiff
KC19%78 mph37% whiff
Weather Impact
Comerica Park
50°F7 mph wind
HR: 0.990 Total: 0.994
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
TEX
2.73ERA
4.01FIP
7.80K/9
3.41BB/9
1.12WHIP
DET
4.45ERA
4.51FIP
8.66K/9
4.77BB/9
1.49WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-38.0% EV
-196
TOTAL OVER 8.0
-15.0% EV
-110
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-8.2% EV
+162
F5_ML AWAY
-6.3% EV
-122
ML HOME
-6.1% EV
-116
TOTAL UNDER 8.0
-4.9% EV
-110
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TEX F5
2.5 runs
43.5% win
DET F5
2.4 runs
41.4% win
F5 Total
4.9
NRFI
57.1%
YRFI
42.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.92
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.0
Over 0.5 HR
86%
Over 1.5 HR
58%
No HR
14%
Dillon Dingler DET30.0%
ISO: 0.200 | Barrel: 13.0% | vs MacKenzie Gore | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Corey Seager TEX29.9%
ISO: 0.286 | Barrel: 11.9% | vs Jack Flaherty | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Josh Jung TEX27.4%
ISO: 0.233 | Barrel: 11.4% | vs Jack Flaherty | Park: 0.97x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
MacKenzie Gore
0.0 K projected
TEX | K/9: 0.0
Jack Flaherty
0.0 K projected
DET | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
TEX8 injured
Wyatt Langford LF10-DAY-IL
Carter Baumler RP15-DAY-IL
Cody Bradford SP60-DAY-IL
Robert Garcia RP15-DAY-IL
Luis Curvelo RP15-DAY-IL
Chris Martin RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
DET8 injured
Zach McKinstry 2B10-DAY-IL
Max Anderson 2BDAY-TO-DAY
Josue Briceno CDAY-TO-DAY
Javier Baez SS10-DAY-IL
Casey Mize SP15-DAY-IL
Jackson Jobe SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRALYELLOW ZONE50.9% WR (n=13)
Perfect coin flip (50.1% vs 49.9%) with no meaningful directional edge. Market odds (-116 / -102) reflect true probability symmetry. No catalyst for model overconfidence or market mispricing.
Key Factors
- SP matchup: Flaherty (5.76 ERA, C+ grades) vs Gore (4.70 ERA, B grades) — slight Gore edge not priced
- Model-market disagreement <1% — essentially in agreement
- Park factor neutral (1.0), weather neutral
- Both teams at similar record quality; no sharp action signal
Risk Factors
- Coin flip games are structurally unprofitable — avoid entirely
- Gore ERA advantage is modest (1.06) and likely already in market
- Neither SP is elite; high variance game
NEUTRALSKIP COIN FLIP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
DET 50.1%
-38.0 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-38.0 pts
Total
8.0
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →