TEX vs DET prediction for May 1, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects DET 4.0 - TEX 4.2. DET is favored with a 50.1% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 8.2 total runs.
DET
4.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
TEX
4.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
DETTEX
+1.5
Run Line (DET)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TEX
246
DET
246
Projected
DET 4.0 — TEX 4.2
Actual
DET 4 — TEX 5
Starting Pitcher Matchup
MacKenzie Gore L
TEX
FF43%96 mph26% whiff
CU22%82 mph27% whiff
CH13%87 mph29% whiff
Jack Flaherty R
DET
FF46%93 mph13% whiff
SL25%85 mph27% whiff
KC19%78 mph37% whiff
Weather Impact
Comerica Park
50°F7 mph wind
HR: 0.990 Total: 0.994
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
TEX
2.73ERA
4.01FIP
7.80K/9
3.41BB/9
1.12WHIP
DET
4.45ERA
4.51FIP
8.66K/9
4.77BB/9
1.49WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-38.0% EV
-196
TOTAL OVER 8.0
-15.0% EV
-110
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-8.2% EV
+162
F5_ML AWAY
-6.3% EV
-122
ML HOME
-6.1% EV
-116
TOTAL UNDER 8.0
-4.9% EV
-110
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TEX F5
2.5 runs
43.5% win
DET F5
2.4 runs
41.4% win
F5 Total
4.9
NRFI
57.1%
YRFI
42.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.92
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.0
Over 0.5 HR
86%
Over 1.5 HR
58%
No HR
14%
Dillon Dingler DET30.0%
ISO: 0.200 | Barrel: 13.0% | vs MacKenzie Gore | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Corey Seager TEX29.9%
ISO: 0.286 | Barrel: 11.9% | vs Jack Flaherty | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Josh Jung TEX27.4%
ISO: 0.233 | Barrel: 11.4% | vs Jack Flaherty | Park: 0.97x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
MacKenzie Gore
0.0 K projected
TEX | K/9: 0.0
Jack Flaherty
0.0 K projected
DET | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
TEX8 injured
Wyatt Langford LF10-DAY-IL
Carter Baumler RP15-DAY-IL
Cody Bradford SP60-DAY-IL
Robert Garcia RP15-DAY-IL
Luis Curvelo RP15-DAY-IL
Chris Martin RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
DET8 injured
Zach McKinstry 2B10-DAY-IL
Max Anderson 2BDAY-TO-DAY
Josue Briceno CDAY-TO-DAY
Javier Baez SS10-DAY-IL
Casey Mize SP15-DAY-IL
Jackson Jobe SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRALYELLOW ZONE50.9% WR (n=13)
Perfect coin flip (50.1% vs 49.9%) with no meaningful directional edge. Market odds (-116 / -102) reflect true probability symmetry. No catalyst for model overconfidence or market mispricing.
Key Factors
- SP matchup: Flaherty (5.76 ERA, C+ grades) vs Gore (4.70 ERA, B grades) — slight Gore edge not priced
- Model-market disagreement <1% — essentially in agreement
- Park factor neutral (1.0), weather neutral
- Both teams at similar record quality; no sharp action signal
Risk Factors
- Coin flip games are structurally unprofitable — avoid entirely
- Gore ERA advantage is modest (1.06) and likely already in market
- Neither SP is elite; high variance game
NEUTRALSKIP COIN FLIP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
DET 50.1%
-38.0 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-38.0 pts
Total
8.0
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →