BAL vs NYY prediction for May 2, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects NYY 5.3 - BAL 4.4. NYY is favored with a 60.6% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 9.7 total runs.
NYY
5.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
BAL
4.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYYBAL
-1.5
Run Line (NYY)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 61.4% (2,610 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
BAL
246
NYY
357
Projected
NYY 5.3 — BAL 4.4
Actual
NYY 9 — BAL 4
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Kyle Bradish R
BAL
SL36%87 mph30% whiff
SI29%94 mph9% whiff
CU18%84 mph41% whiff
Ryan Weathers L
NYY
FF33%96 mph18% whiff
CH22%85 mph29% whiff
ST20%82 mph49% whiff
Weather Impact
Yankee Stadium
61°F4 mph wind
HR: 0.989 Total: 0.993
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
BAL
3.63ERA
3.71FIP
10.23K/9
3.71BB/9
1.24WHIP
NYY
3.70ERA
3.81FIP
8.83K/9
3.49BB/9
1.33WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-40.5% EV
-141
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
-15.3% EV
-115
F5_ML AWAY
-11.5% EV
+126
TOTAL OVER 8.5
+6.7% EV
-105
ML AWAY
-4.2% EV
+144
ML HOME
-4.0% EV
-172
First 5 Innings & NRFI
BAL F5
2.4 runs
33.1% win
NYY F5
3.3 runs
53.1% win
F5 Total
5.6
NRFI
53.0%
YRFI
47.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.04
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.6
Over 0.5 HR
92%
Over 1.5 HR
73%
No HR
8%
Gunnar Henderson BAL30.0%
ISO: 0.344 | Barrel: 14.9% | vs Ryan Weathers | Park: 1.10x
Coby Mayo BAL30.0%
ISO: 0.348 | Barrel: 7.5% | vs Ryan Weathers | Park: 1.10x Platoon: 1.12x
Ben Rice NYY30.0%
ISO: 0.356 | Barrel: 20.0% | vs Kyle Bradish | Park: 1.10x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Kyle Bradish
0.0 K projected
BAL | K/9: 0.0
Ryan Weathers
0.0 K projected
NYY | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
BAL8 injured
Ryan Helsley RP15-DAY-IL
Jackson Holliday 2B10-DAY-IL
Trevor Rogers SP15-DAY-IL
Hans Crouse RPDAY-TO-DAY
Will Robertson LFDAY-TO-DAY
Ryan Noda 1BDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
NYY8 injured
Carlos Rodon SP15-DAY-IL
Giancarlo Stanton DH10-DAY-IL
Anthony Volpe SS10-DAY-IL
Gerrit Cole SP15-DAY-IL
Angel Chivilli RP15-DAY-IL
Ben Hess SPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE51.1% WR (n=222)
Model projects 9.71 runs (54.7% prob) vs 8.5 market despite cold conditions (60.7F, neutral wind). Weathers (B grade, 3.47 ERA) outmatches Bradish (C+, 4.54 ERA) but neither is elite — OVER edge is soft 6.7%, driven by park factor (Yankee Stadium +10% HR). Better to fade.
Key Factors
- Weathers (3.47 ERA) vs Bradish (4.54 ERA) — 1.07 point pitcher advantage to NYY, but neither dominant
- Yankee Stadium +10% park factor inflates runs, but 60.7F cold temps and neutral winds suppress 0.4-0.5 runs
- Model projects 9.71, market at 8.5 — 1.21 run edge translates to 6.7% edge on OVER, below optimal ML 8%+ threshold
- Both bullpens solid: NYY 3.7 ERA (1.216 quality), BAL 3.63 ERA (1.24 quality) — no fatigue advantage
Risk Factors
- Edge of 6.7% falls below enabled ML threshold (8%) and calibration caution zone
- Cold temps at game time may compress total more than model predicts (0.5-1.0 run swing)
- Bradish has elevated BB rate (12.6%) — could increase scoring variance
PITCHER MISMATCHMODERATE EDGEPARK FACTOR
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
NYY 60.6%
-2.8 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-2.8 pts
Total
8.5
+6.7 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →