BAL vs NYY prediction for May 2, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects NYY 5.3 - BAL 4.4. NYY is favored with a 60.6% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 9.7 total runs.
NYY
5.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
BAL
4.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYYBAL
-1.5
Run Line (NYY)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 60.7% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
BAL
246
NYY
357
Projected
NYY 5.3 — BAL 4.4
Actual
NYY 9 — BAL 4
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Kyle Bradish R
BAL
SL36%87 mph30% whiff
SI29%94 mph9% whiff
CU18%84 mph41% whiff
Ryan Weathers L
NYY
FF33%96 mph18% whiff
CH22%85 mph29% whiff
ST20%82 mph49% whiff
Weather Impact
Yankee Stadium
61°F4 mph wind
HR: 0.989 Total: 0.993
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
BAL
3.63ERA
3.71FIP
10.23K/9
3.71BB/9
1.24WHIP
NYY
3.70ERA
3.81FIP
8.83K/9
3.49BB/9
1.33WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-40.5% EV
-141
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
-15.3% EV
-115
F5_ML AWAY
-11.5% EV
+126
TOTAL OVER 8.5
+6.7% EV
-105
ML AWAY
-4.2% EV
+144
ML HOME
-4.0% EV
-172
First 5 Innings & NRFI
BAL F5
2.4 runs
33.1% win
NYY F5
3.3 runs
53.1% win
F5 Total
5.6
NRFI
53.0%
YRFI
47.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.04
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.6
Over 0.5 HR
92%
Over 1.5 HR
73%
No HR
8%
Gunnar Henderson BAL30.0%
ISO: 0.344 | Barrel: 14.9% | vs Ryan Weathers | Park: 1.10x
Coby Mayo BAL30.0%
ISO: 0.348 | Barrel: 7.5% | vs Ryan Weathers | Park: 1.10x Platoon: 1.12x
Ben Rice NYY30.0%
ISO: 0.356 | Barrel: 20.0% | vs Kyle Bradish | Park: 1.10x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Kyle Bradish
0.0 K projected
BAL | K/9: 0.0
Ryan Weathers
0.0 K projected
NYY | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
BAL8 injured
Ryan Helsley RP15-DAY-IL
Jackson Holliday 2B10-DAY-IL
Trevor Rogers SP15-DAY-IL
Hans Crouse RPDAY-TO-DAY
Will Robertson LFDAY-TO-DAY
Ryan Noda 1BDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
NYY8 injured
Carlos Rodon SP15-DAY-IL
Giancarlo Stanton DH10-DAY-IL
Anthony Volpe SS10-DAY-IL
Gerrit Cole SP15-DAY-IL
Angel Chivilli RP15-DAY-IL
Ben Hess SPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE51.1% WR (n=222)
Model projects 9.71 runs (54.7% prob) vs 8.5 market despite cold conditions (60.7F, neutral wind). Weathers (B grade, 3.47 ERA) outmatches Bradish (C+, 4.54 ERA) but neither is elite — OVER edge is soft 6.7%, driven by park factor (Yankee Stadium +10% HR). Better to fade.
Key Factors
- Weathers (3.47 ERA) vs Bradish (4.54 ERA) — 1.07 point pitcher advantage to NYY, but neither dominant
- Yankee Stadium +10% park factor inflates runs, but 60.7F cold temps and neutral winds suppress 0.4-0.5 runs
- Model projects 9.71, market at 8.5 — 1.21 run edge translates to 6.7% edge on OVER, below optimal ML 8%+ threshold
- Both bullpens solid: NYY 3.7 ERA (1.216 quality), BAL 3.63 ERA (1.24 quality) — no fatigue advantage
Risk Factors
- Edge of 6.7% falls below enabled ML threshold (8%) and calibration caution zone
- Cold temps at game time may compress total more than model predicts (0.5-1.0 run swing)
- Bradish has elevated BB rate (12.6%) — could increase scoring variance
PITCHER MISMATCHMODERATE EDGEPARK FACTOR
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
NYY 60.6%
-2.8 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-2.8 pts
Total
8.5
+6.7 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →