CLE vs OAK prediction for May 2, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects OAK 4.9 - CLE 4.6. OAK is favored with a 55.4% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 10.5. Model projects 9.5 total runs.
OAK
4.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 10.5
CLE
4.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
OAKCLE
-1.5
Run Line (OAK)
10.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CLE
357
OAK
357
Projected
OAK 4.9 — CLE 4.6
Actual
OAK 6 — CLE 14
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Slade Cecconi R
CLE
FF37%93 mph19% whiff
FC24%87 mph15% whiff
CU18%74 mph33% whiff
Jacob Lopez L
OAK
FF33%90 mph14% whiff
SL27%78 mph22% whiff
FC20%87 mph22% whiff
Weather Impact
Oakland Coliseum
59°F9 mph wind
HR: 0.961 Total: 0.976
9mph in
Bullpen Comparison
CLE
4.22ERA
4.05FIP
10.05K/9
3.54BB/9
1.27WHIP
OAK
3.93ERA
4.39FIP
8.74K/9
4.76BB/9
1.45WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-37.5% EV
-167
TOTAL OVER 10.5
-21.3% EV
-106
TOTAL UNDER 10.5
+11.8% EV
-114
F5_ML AWAY
-8.7% EV
+110
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-5.8% EV
+138
ML HOME
-4.4% EV
-139
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CLE F5
2.6 runs
37.3% win
OAK F5
3.1 runs
49.4% win
F5 Total
5.7
NRFI
48.2%
YRFI
51.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.19
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.6
Over 0.5 HR
93%
Over 1.5 HR
74%
No HR
7%
Chase DeLauter CLE30.0%
ISO: 0.233 | Barrel: 11.9% | vs Jacob Lopez | Park: 0.94x
Angel Martínez CLE30.0%
ISO: 0.126 | Barrel: 12.6% | vs Jacob Lopez | Park: 0.94x Platoon: 1.12x
Carlos Cortes OAK30.0%
ISO: 0.270 | Barrel: 15.6% | vs Slade Cecconi | Park: 0.94x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Slade Cecconi
0.0 K projected
CLE | K/9: 0.0
Jacob Lopez
0.0 K projected
OAK | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
CLE5 injured
Gabriel Arias SS10-DAY-IL
Carlos Hernandez RPDAY-TO-DAY
Cooper Ingle CDAY-TO-DAY
Shawn Armstrong RP15-DAY-IL
Andrew Walters RP15-DAY-IL
OAK5 injured
Jeffrey Springs SPDAY-TO-DAY
Denzel Clarke CF10-DAY-IL
Max Muncy 3B10-DAY-IL
JJ Goss SPDAY-TO-DAY
Gunnar Hoglund SP60-DAY-IL
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEANGREEN ZONE57.7% WR (n=10)
Model projects 9.51 runs (59.5% UNDER prob) vs 10.5 market. Both pitchers are below-average (Lopez 6.31 ERA C-grade, Cecconi 6.73 ERA C+). Weather neutral (59F, 9.4mph in), park factor neutral (1.0). 11.8% UNDER edge is solid but not elite. Lean UNDER with caution — combined with bullpen strength (OAK 1.145 quality, CLE 1.066 quality) suggests run suppression.
Key Factors
- Lopez 6.31 ERA (C-) vs Cecconi 6.73 ERA (C+) — both poor starters, suggests bullpens dominate. OAK pen 3.93 ERA > CLE pen 4.22 ERA slight advantage OAK
- Model 9.51 vs market 10.5 = 0.99 run gap, 11.8% edge — above minimum threshold but not elite
- Weather neutral except for cold wind (0.976 mult), limiting fly balls and home runs slightly
- Both offenses middling: CLE 0.959 BPR, OAK 0.945 BPR — below-average lineup quality supports under assumption
Risk Factors
- Both poor starters could get shelled if either offense gets hot; bullpen reliance creates swing risk
- Oakland Coliseum plays neutral for both teams — no park advantage to exploit
- CLE might use this as a rest game with defensive focus given two dominant starters pending
WEATHER IMPACTPARK FACTOR
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
OAK 55.4%
-5.8 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-5.8 pts
Total
10.5
+11.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →