CLE vs OAK prediction for May 2, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects OAK 4.9 - CLE 4.6. OAK is favored with a 55.4% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 10.5. Model projects 9.5 total runs.
OAK
4.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 10.5
CLE
4.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
OAKCLE
-1.5
Run Line (OAK)
10.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.9% (2,610 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CLE
357
OAK
357
Projected
OAK 4.9 — CLE 4.6
Actual
OAK 6 — CLE 14
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Slade Cecconi R
CLE
FF37%93 mph19% whiff
FC24%87 mph15% whiff
CU18%74 mph33% whiff
Jacob Lopez L
OAK
FF33%90 mph14% whiff
SL27%78 mph22% whiff
FC20%87 mph22% whiff
Weather Impact
Oakland Coliseum
59°F9 mph wind
HR: 0.961 Total: 0.976
9mph in
Bullpen Comparison
CLE
4.22ERA
4.05FIP
10.05K/9
3.54BB/9
1.27WHIP
OAK
3.93ERA
4.39FIP
8.74K/9
4.76BB/9
1.45WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-37.5% EV
-167
TOTAL OVER 10.5
-21.3% EV
-106
TOTAL UNDER 10.5
+11.8% EV
-114
F5_ML AWAY
-8.7% EV
+110
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-5.8% EV
+138
ML HOME
-4.4% EV
-139
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CLE F5
2.6 runs
37.3% win
OAK F5
3.1 runs
49.4% win
F5 Total
5.7
NRFI
48.2%
YRFI
51.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.19
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.6
Over 0.5 HR
93%
Over 1.5 HR
74%
No HR
7%
Chase DeLauter CLE30.0%
ISO: 0.233 | Barrel: 11.9% | vs Jacob Lopez | Park: 0.94x
Angel Martínez CLE30.0%
ISO: 0.126 | Barrel: 12.6% | vs Jacob Lopez | Park: 0.94x Platoon: 1.12x
Carlos Cortes OAK30.0%
ISO: 0.270 | Barrel: 15.6% | vs Slade Cecconi | Park: 0.94x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Slade Cecconi
0.0 K projected
CLE | K/9: 0.0
Jacob Lopez
0.0 K projected
OAK | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
CLE5 injured
Gabriel Arias SS10-DAY-IL
Carlos Hernandez RPDAY-TO-DAY
Cooper Ingle CDAY-TO-DAY
Shawn Armstrong RP15-DAY-IL
Andrew Walters RP15-DAY-IL
OAK5 injured
Jeffrey Springs SPDAY-TO-DAY
Denzel Clarke CF10-DAY-IL
Max Muncy 3B10-DAY-IL
JJ Goss SPDAY-TO-DAY
Gunnar Hoglund SP60-DAY-IL
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEANGREEN ZONE57.7% WR (n=10)
Model projects 9.51 runs (59.5% UNDER prob) vs 10.5 market. Both pitchers are below-average (Lopez 6.31 ERA C-grade, Cecconi 6.73 ERA C+). Weather neutral (59F, 9.4mph in), park factor neutral (1.0). 11.8% UNDER edge is solid but not elite. Lean UNDER with caution — combined with bullpen strength (OAK 1.145 quality, CLE 1.066 quality) suggests run suppression.
Key Factors
- Lopez 6.31 ERA (C-) vs Cecconi 6.73 ERA (C+) — both poor starters, suggests bullpens dominate. OAK pen 3.93 ERA > CLE pen 4.22 ERA slight advantage OAK
- Model 9.51 vs market 10.5 = 0.99 run gap, 11.8% edge — above minimum threshold but not elite
- Weather neutral except for cold wind (0.976 mult), limiting fly balls and home runs slightly
- Both offenses middling: CLE 0.959 BPR, OAK 0.945 BPR — below-average lineup quality supports under assumption
Risk Factors
- Both poor starters could get shelled if either offense gets hot; bullpen reliance creates swing risk
- Oakland Coliseum plays neutral for both teams — no park advantage to exploit
- CLE might use this as a rest game with defensive focus given two dominant starters pending
WEATHER IMPACTPARK FACTOR
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
OAK 55.4%
-5.8 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-5.8 pts
Total
10.5
+11.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →