SF vs TB prediction for May 2, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects TB 3.4 - SF 3.2. TB is favored with a 53.3% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 6.6 total runs.
TB
3.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
SF
3.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
TBSF
+1.5
Run Line (TB)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SF
135
TB
135
Projected
TB 3.4 — SF 3.2
Actual
TB 5 — SF 1
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Landen Roupp R
SF
SI39%93 mph10% whiff
CU29%76 mph31% whiff
CH17%87 mph26% whiff
Griffin Jax R
TB
ST31%89 mph36% whiff
FF20%97 mph18% whiff
CH20%92 mph30% whiff
Weather Impact
Tropicana Field
73°F8 mph windRoof: closed
HR: 1.000 Total: 1.000
Indoor (neutral)
Bullpen Comparison
SF
3.17ERA
3.82FIP
9.12K/9
4.56BB/9
1.30WHIP
TB
5.08ERA
4.80FIP
8.23K/9
4.34BB/9
1.47WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-35.9% EV
-179
TOTAL OVER 7.5
-26.2% EV
-108
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-20.8% EV
+146
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
+16.7% EV
-112
F5_ML AWAY
-12.3% EV
-122
ML AWAY
-11.1% EV
-118
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SF F5
1.7 runs
37.4% win
TB F5
1.9 runs
42.4% win
F5 Total
3.6
NRFI
64.3%
YRFI
35.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.69
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.6
Over 0.5 HR
80%
Over 1.5 HR
48%
No HR
20%
Casey Schmitt SF23.8%
ISO: 0.254 | Barrel: 11.5% | vs Griffin Jax | Park: 0.92x
Junior Caminero TB22.9%
ISO: 0.250 | Barrel: 14.4% | vs Landen Roupp | Park: 0.92x
Jake Fraley TB21.0%
ISO: 0.208 | Barrel: 9.6% | vs Landen Roupp | Park: 0.92x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Landen Roupp
0.0 K projected
SF | K/9: 0.0
Griffin Jax
0.0 K projected
TB | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SF8 injured
Jared Oliva CF60-DAY-IL
Daniel Susac C10-DAY-IL
Jason Foley RP60-DAY-IL
Harrison Bader CF10-DAY-IL
Jose Butto RP60-DAY-IL
Sam Hentges RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
TB8 injured
Yandy Diaz 1BDAY-TO-DAY
Mason Englert RP15-DAY-IL
Joe Boyle SP15-DAY-IL
Ryan Pepiot SP60-DAY-IL
Gavin Lux LF10-DAY-IL
Edwin Uceta RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEANGREEN ZONE57.7% WR (n=10)
Model projects 6.58 runs (61.8% UNDER prob) vs 7.5 market. Roupp (elite, 2.75 ERA, B- grade) vs Jax (poor, 6.86 ERA, C+ grade) — 4.11 ERA delta. Cold neutral weather (72.9F, closed dome). 16.7% UNDER edge is solid but not exceptional given extreme pitcher mismatch suggests model undervaluing it slightly. Lean UNDER with caution.
Key Factors
- Roupp 2.75 ERA (B-) vs Jax 6.86 ERA (C+) — 4.11 ERA delta is significant pitcher advantage SF
- Tropicana Field closed dome = neutral environment, no weather impact (1.0 multiplier)
- SF offense weak (0.897 BPR) but TB also below-average (0.896 BPR) — low-scoring matchup expected
- Model 6.58 vs market 7.5 = 0.92 run gap, 16.7% edge — above minimum but not elite tier
Risk Factors
- Roupp only B- grade, not A-level pitcher — could underperform ERA expectation
- Jax could settle in early given warm dome conditions favor strikeout-prone pitchers
- Both offenses so poor that scoring could actually be even lower than 6.58 (sub-6 possible)
PITCHER MISMATCHPARK FACTORWEATHER IMPACT
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
TB 53.3%
-35.9 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-35.9 pts
Total
7.5
+16.7 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →