SF vs TB prediction for May 2, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects TB 3.4 - SF 3.2. TB is favored with a 53.3% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 6.6 total runs.
TB
3.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
SF
3.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
TBSF
+1.5
Run Line (TB)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.7% (2,610 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SF
135
TB
135
Projected
TB 3.4 — SF 3.2
Actual
TB 5 — SF 1
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Landen Roupp R
SF
SI39%93 mph10% whiff
CU29%76 mph31% whiff
CH17%87 mph26% whiff
Griffin Jax R
TB
ST31%89 mph36% whiff
FF20%97 mph18% whiff
CH20%92 mph30% whiff
Weather Impact
Tropicana Field
73°F8 mph windRoof: closed
HR: 1.000 Total: 1.000
Indoor (neutral)
Bullpen Comparison
SF
3.17ERA
3.82FIP
9.12K/9
4.56BB/9
1.30WHIP
TB
5.08ERA
4.80FIP
8.23K/9
4.34BB/9
1.47WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-35.9% EV
-179
TOTAL OVER 7.5
-26.2% EV
-108
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-20.8% EV
+146
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
+16.7% EV
-112
F5_ML AWAY
-12.3% EV
-122
ML AWAY
-11.1% EV
-118
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SF F5
1.7 runs
37.4% win
TB F5
1.9 runs
42.4% win
F5 Total
3.6
NRFI
64.3%
YRFI
35.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.69
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.6
Over 0.5 HR
80%
Over 1.5 HR
48%
No HR
20%
Casey Schmitt SF23.8%
ISO: 0.254 | Barrel: 11.5% | vs Griffin Jax | Park: 0.92x
Junior Caminero TB22.9%
ISO: 0.250 | Barrel: 14.4% | vs Landen Roupp | Park: 0.92x
Jake Fraley TB21.0%
ISO: 0.208 | Barrel: 9.6% | vs Landen Roupp | Park: 0.92x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Landen Roupp
0.0 K projected
SF | K/9: 0.0
Griffin Jax
0.0 K projected
TB | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SF8 injured
Jared Oliva CF60-DAY-IL
Daniel Susac C10-DAY-IL
Jason Foley RP60-DAY-IL
Harrison Bader CF10-DAY-IL
Jose Butto RP60-DAY-IL
Sam Hentges RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
TB8 injured
Yandy Diaz 1BDAY-TO-DAY
Mason Englert RP15-DAY-IL
Joe Boyle SP15-DAY-IL
Ryan Pepiot SP60-DAY-IL
Gavin Lux LF10-DAY-IL
Edwin Uceta RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEANGREEN ZONE57.7% WR (n=10)
Model projects 6.58 runs (61.8% UNDER prob) vs 7.5 market. Roupp (elite, 2.75 ERA, B- grade) vs Jax (poor, 6.86 ERA, C+ grade) — 4.11 ERA delta. Cold neutral weather (72.9F, closed dome). 16.7% UNDER edge is solid but not exceptional given extreme pitcher mismatch suggests model undervaluing it slightly. Lean UNDER with caution.
Key Factors
- Roupp 2.75 ERA (B-) vs Jax 6.86 ERA (C+) — 4.11 ERA delta is significant pitcher advantage SF
- Tropicana Field closed dome = neutral environment, no weather impact (1.0 multiplier)
- SF offense weak (0.897 BPR) but TB also below-average (0.896 BPR) — low-scoring matchup expected
- Model 6.58 vs market 7.5 = 0.92 run gap, 16.7% edge — above minimum but not elite tier
Risk Factors
- Roupp only B- grade, not A-level pitcher — could underperform ERA expectation
- Jax could settle in early given warm dome conditions favor strikeout-prone pitchers
- Both offenses so poor that scoring could actually be even lower than 6.58 (sub-6 possible)
PITCHER MISMATCHPARK FACTORWEATHER IMPACT
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
TB 53.3%
-35.9 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-35.9 pts
Total
7.5
+16.7 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →