HOU vs BOS prediction for May 2, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects BOS 3.0 - HOU 4.1. HOU is favored with a 58.9% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 7.1 total runs.
BOS
3.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
HOU
4.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
BOSHOU
-1.5
Run Line (BOS)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 61.1% (2,610 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
HOU
246
BOS
135
Projected
BOS 3.0 — HOU 4.1
Actual
BOS 3 — HOU 6
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Spencer Arrighetti R
HOU
CU30%76 mph49% whiff
FF24%92 mph10% whiff
ST18%78 mph24% whiff
Connelly Early L
BOS
FF33%94 mph18% whiff
CH21%83 mph23% whiff
SI17%92 mph4% whiff
Weather Impact
Fenway Park
52°F4 mph wind
HR: 1.020 Total: 1.012
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
HOU
6.27ERA
5.54FIP
8.74K/9
6.06BB/9
1.61WHIP
BOS
3.91ERA
4.67FIP
8.35K/9
3.57BB/9
1.27WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 9.0
-41.0% EV
-108
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-31.9% EV
+146
F5 UNDER 4.5
+27.2% EV
+104
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-25.5% EV
-175
ML HOME
-23.6% EV
-143
F5_ML HOME
-21.5% EV
-128
First 5 Innings & NRFI
HOU F5
2.1 runs
47.3% win
BOS F5
1.5 runs
32.9% win
F5 Total
3.7
NRFI
64.3%
YRFI
35.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.70
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.3
Over 0.5 HR
73%
Over 1.5 HR
37%
No HR
27%
Yordan Alvarez HOU30.0%
ISO: 0.405 | Barrel: 20.0% | vs Connelly Early | Park: 1.08x
Christian Walker HOU28.5%
ISO: 0.285 | Barrel: 14.5% | vs Connelly Early | Park: 1.08x Platoon: 1.12x
Wilyer Abreu BOS16.8%
ISO: 0.211 | Barrel: 8.5% | vs Spencer Arrighetti | Park: 1.08x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Spencer Arrighetti
0.0 K projected
HOU | K/9: 0.0
Connelly Early
0.0 K projected
BOS | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
HOU8 injured
Tatsuya Imai SP15-DAY-IL
Ryan Weiss RPPATERNITY
Jeremy Pena SS10-DAY-IL
Hunter Brown SP15-DAY-IL
Nate Pearson RP15-DAY-IL
Taylor Trammell CF10-DAY-IL
+2 more
BOS8 injured
Sonny Gray SP15-DAY-IL
Garrett Crochet SP15-DAY-IL
Justin Slaten RP15-DAY-IL
Patrick Sandoval SP15-DAY-IL
Triston Casas 1B60-DAY-IL
Kutter Crawford SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +1GREEN ZONE57.7% WR (n=10)
Model projects 7.13 runs (62.7% UNDER prob) vs 9.0 market. Arrighetti (elite, 2.16 ERA, B- grade, 26.9% K-rate) dominates Early (C+, 3.07 ERA, 21.4% K-rate). Cold Fenway (51.7F), neutral wind. 18.5% UNDER edge is strong. HOU is a road dog with weak bullpen (6.27 ERA, 0.718 quality) — market may be overvaluing run scoring in cold conditions. BET UNDER.
Key Factors
- Arrighetti 2.16 ERA vs Early 3.07 ERA — 0.91 ERA delta, backed by 26.9% K vs 21.4% K. Elite-vs-competent mismatch.
- Cold Fenway 51.7F suppress runs by 0.7-1.0, though park is still HR-friendly overall. Weather multiplier 1.012 slight boost but temp offsets.
- Model 62.7% UNDER vs market 41.2% implied (9.0 total) = 21.5 point prob gap, 18.5% edge — significant
- HOU weak bullpen (6.27 ERA) but BOS also not elite (3.91 ERA, 1.151 quality) — starters dominate in this matchup
Risk Factors
- Fenway is inherently over-productive; cold temps may only shave 0.3-0.5 runs not 1.0+
- Early's 3.07 ERA could regress; HOU lineup has Alvarez (30% HR prob) who can homer in cold
- If Early gets pulled early due to inefficiency, BOS bullpen reliance could allow HOU to catch up
PITCHER MISMATCHWEATHER IMPACTTOTALS VALUE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
HOU 58.9%
-31.9 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-31.9 pts
Total
9.0
+18.5 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →