HOU vs BOS prediction for May 2, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects BOS 3.0 - HOU 4.1. HOU is favored with a 58.9% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 7.1 total runs.
BOS
3.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
HOU
4.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
BOSHOU
-1.5
Run Line (BOS)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 60.7% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
HOU
246
BOS
135
Projected
BOS 3.0 — HOU 4.1
Actual
BOS 3 — HOU 6
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Spencer Arrighetti R
HOU
CU30%76 mph49% whiff
FF24%92 mph10% whiff
ST18%78 mph24% whiff
Connelly Early L
BOS
FF33%94 mph18% whiff
CH21%83 mph23% whiff
SI17%92 mph4% whiff
Weather Impact
Fenway Park
52°F4 mph wind
HR: 1.020 Total: 1.012
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
HOU
6.27ERA
5.54FIP
8.74K/9
6.06BB/9
1.61WHIP
BOS
3.91ERA
4.67FIP
8.35K/9
3.57BB/9
1.27WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 9.0
-41.0% EV
-108
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-31.9% EV
+146
F5 UNDER 4.5
+27.2% EV
+104
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-25.5% EV
-175
ML HOME
-23.6% EV
-143
F5_ML HOME
-21.5% EV
-128
First 5 Innings & NRFI
HOU F5
2.1 runs
47.3% win
BOS F5
1.5 runs
32.9% win
F5 Total
3.7
NRFI
64.3%
YRFI
35.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.70
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.3
Over 0.5 HR
73%
Over 1.5 HR
37%
No HR
27%
Yordan Alvarez HOU30.0%
ISO: 0.405 | Barrel: 20.0% | vs Connelly Early | Park: 1.08x
Christian Walker HOU28.5%
ISO: 0.285 | Barrel: 14.5% | vs Connelly Early | Park: 1.08x Platoon: 1.12x
Wilyer Abreu BOS16.8%
ISO: 0.211 | Barrel: 8.5% | vs Spencer Arrighetti | Park: 1.08x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Spencer Arrighetti
0.0 K projected
HOU | K/9: 0.0
Connelly Early
0.0 K projected
BOS | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
HOU8 injured
Tatsuya Imai SP15-DAY-IL
Ryan Weiss RPPATERNITY
Jeremy Pena SS10-DAY-IL
Hunter Brown SP15-DAY-IL
Nate Pearson RP15-DAY-IL
Taylor Trammell CF10-DAY-IL
+2 more
BOS8 injured
Sonny Gray SP15-DAY-IL
Garrett Crochet SP15-DAY-IL
Justin Slaten RP15-DAY-IL
Patrick Sandoval SP15-DAY-IL
Triston Casas 1B60-DAY-IL
Kutter Crawford SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +1GREEN ZONE57.7% WR (n=10)
Model projects 7.13 runs (62.7% UNDER prob) vs 9.0 market. Arrighetti (elite, 2.16 ERA, B- grade, 26.9% K-rate) dominates Early (C+, 3.07 ERA, 21.4% K-rate). Cold Fenway (51.7F), neutral wind. 18.5% UNDER edge is strong. HOU is a road dog with weak bullpen (6.27 ERA, 0.718 quality) — market may be overvaluing run scoring in cold conditions. BET UNDER.
Key Factors
- Arrighetti 2.16 ERA vs Early 3.07 ERA — 0.91 ERA delta, backed by 26.9% K vs 21.4% K. Elite-vs-competent mismatch.
- Cold Fenway 51.7F suppress runs by 0.7-1.0, though park is still HR-friendly overall. Weather multiplier 1.012 slight boost but temp offsets.
- Model 62.7% UNDER vs market 41.2% implied (9.0 total) = 21.5 point prob gap, 18.5% edge — significant
- HOU weak bullpen (6.27 ERA) but BOS also not elite (3.91 ERA, 1.151 quality) — starters dominate in this matchup
Risk Factors
- Fenway is inherently over-productive; cold temps may only shave 0.3-0.5 runs not 1.0+
- Early's 3.07 ERA could regress; HOU lineup has Alvarez (30% HR prob) who can homer in cold
- If Early gets pulled early due to inefficiency, BOS bullpen reliance could allow HOU to catch up
PITCHER MISMATCHWEATHER IMPACTTOTALS VALUE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
HOU 58.9%
-31.9 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-31.9 pts
Total
9.0
+18.5 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →