CHC vs MIA prediction for September 4, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects MIA 3.9 - CHC 4.1. MIA is favored with a 51.0% win probability. MIA wins more simulations despite the lower average score. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 7.9 total runs.
MIA
3.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
CHC
4.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
MIACHC
+1.5
Run Line (MIA)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 52.6% (3,723 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CHC
246
MIA
246
Projected
MIA 3.9 — CHC 4.1
Actual
MIA 1 — CHC 6
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Shota Imanaga L
CHC
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF41%92 mph18% whiff
FS33%83 mph40% whiff
ST15%81 mph27% whiff
Janson Junk R
MIA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF35%94 mph9% whiff
SL20%86 mph13% whiff
CH18%87 mph21% whiff
Weather Impact
loanDepot park
83°F4 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.010 Total: 1.003
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
CHC
4.36ERA
4.71FIP
9.27K/9
4.06BB/9
1.34WHIP
MIA
4.27ERA
3.88FIP
9.78K/9
4.16BB/9
1.29WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CHC F5
2.1 runs
39.7% win
MIA F5
2.2 runs
42.6% win
F5 Total
4.2
NRFI
58.2%
YRFI
41.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.83
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
CHC8 injured
Gavin Hollowell RP15-DAY-IL
Edward Cabrera SP15-DAY-IL
Jacob Webb RPDAY-TO-DAY
Ben Brown RP60-DAY-IL
Justin Steele SP60-DAY-IL
Phil Maton RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
MIA8 injured
Owen Caissie RFDAY-TO-DAY
Kyle Stowers 1BDAY-TO-DAY
Xavier Edwards 2B10-DAY-IL
Anthony Bender RP15-DAY-IL
Pete Fairbanks RP15-DAY-IL
Andrew Nardi RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.