MIN vs CWS prediction for September 4, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CWS 7.2 - MIN 6.0. CWS is favored with a 62.1% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 13.1 total runs.
CWS
7.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
MIN
6.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
CWSMIN
-1.5
Run Line (CWS)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 62.8% (3,723 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIN
468
CWS
579
Projected
CWS 7.2 — MIN 6.0
Actual
CWS 4 — MIN 1
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Zebby Matthews R
MIN
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF36%95 mph11% whiff
SL22%87 mph34% whiff
CH13%87 mph17% whiff
Erick Fedde R
CWS
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
ST37%82 mph21% whiff
SI30%94 mph12% whiff
FC19%91 mph16% whiff
Weather Impact
Rate Field
92°F9 mph wind
HR: 1.063 Total: 1.032
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
MIN
4.40ERA
4.09FIP
9.09K/9
4.04BB/9
1.38WHIP
CWS
4.25ERA
4.52FIP
8.94K/9
4.59BB/9
1.37WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIN F5
3.3 runs
34.6% win
CWS F5
4.3 runs
54.9% win
F5 Total
7.6
NRFI
45.3%
YRFI
54.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.39
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
MIN8 injured
Joe Ryan SP15-DAY-IL
Byron Buxton CF10-DAY-IL
Austin Martin RF10-DAY-IL
Mike Paredes SP60-DAY-IL
Cole Sands RP60-DAY-IL
David Festa SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
CWSHealthy
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.