SF vs NYM prediction for September 4, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects NYM 3.9 - SF 3.4. NYM is favored with a 57.9% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 7.4 total runs.
NYM
3.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
SF
3.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYMSF
-1.5
Run Line (NYM)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.9% (3,723 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SF
135
NYM
246
Projected
NYM 3.9 — SF 3.4
Actual
NYM 10 — SF 6
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Matt Wilkinson L
SF
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF55%90 mph12% whiff
CH24%84 mph12% whiff
SL16%79 mph20% whiff
Nolan McLean R
NYM
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI33%95 mph12% whiff
FF20%96 mph26% whiff
CU14%82 mph36% whiff
Weather Impact
Citi Field
80°F4 mph wind
HR: 1.014 Total: 1.006
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
SF
4.70ERA
4.44FIP
7.49K/9
4.45BB/9
1.50WHIP
NYM
4.17ERA
4.23FIP
9.34K/9
4.09BB/9
1.36WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SF F5
1.8 runs
34.7% win
NYM F5
2.2 runs
46.3% win
F5 Total
3.9
NRFI
59.9%
YRFI
40.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.78
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
SF8 injured
Keaton Winn RP60-DAY-IL
Victor Bericoto LF10-DAY-IL
Adrian Houser SP60-DAY-IL
Matt Gage RP60-DAY-IL
Sam Hentges RP15-DAY-IL
Casey Schmitt LF60-DAY-IL
+2 more
NYM5 injured
Devin Williams RP15-DAY-IL
Jorge Polanco DH60-DAY-IL
Cionel Perez RP15-DAY-IL
Reed Garrett RP60-DAY-IL
Tylor Megill SP60-DAY-IL
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.