CHC vs MIA prediction for September 6, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects MIA 3.5 - CHC 4.1. CHC is favored with a 57.1% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 7.6 total runs.
MIA
3.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
CHC
4.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
MIACHC
+1.5
Run Line (MIA)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 61.2% (3,752 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CHC
246
MIA
245
Projected
MIA 3.5 — CHC 4.1
Actual
MIA 10 — CHC 3
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Clay Holmes R
CHC
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI50%93 mph10% whiff
ST18%82 mph25% whiff
CH14%88 mph31% whiff
Tyler Phillips R
MIA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI26%96 mph5% whiff
ST25%84 mph32% whiff
FS23%87 mph33% whiff
Weather Impact
loanDepot park
87°F4 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.056 Total: 1.030
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
CHC
4.36ERA
4.76FIP
9.26K/9
4.07BB/9
1.33WHIP
MIA
4.30ERA
3.93FIP
9.76K/9
4.29BB/9
1.31WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CHC F5
2.2 runs
45.3% win
MIA F5
1.9 runs
36.8% win
F5 Total
4.0
NRFI
57.6%
YRFI
42.4%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.87
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
CHC8 injured
Gavin Hollowell RP15-DAY-IL
Edward Cabrera SP15-DAY-IL
Jacob Webb RPDAY-TO-DAY
Ben Brown RP60-DAY-IL
Justin Steele SP60-DAY-IL
Phil Maton RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
MIA8 injured
Xavier Edwards 2B10-DAY-IL
Anthony Bender RP15-DAY-IL
Pete Fairbanks RP15-DAY-IL
Andrew Nardi RP60-DAY-IL
Max Meyer SP15-DAY-IL
William Kempner RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.