DET vs CLE prediction for September 6, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CLE 4.7 - DET 4.2. CLE is favored with a 58.5% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.0. Model projects 8.8 total runs.
CLE
4.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.0
DET
4.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
CLEDET
-1.5
Run Line (CLE)
7.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 61.5% (3,752 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
DET
246
CLE
357
Projected
CLE 4.7 — DET 4.2
Actual
CLE 3 — DET 2
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Jackson Jobe R
DET
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF36%98 mph10% whiff
SL24%90 mph19% whiff
SI17%96 mph16% whiff
Gavin Williams R
CLE
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
ST28%88 mph42% whiff
FF27%98 mph27% whiff
CU22%83 mph29% whiff
Weather Impact
Progressive Field
76°F10 mph wind
HR: 0.986 Total: 0.989
thin air, 9mph in
Bullpen Comparison
DET
4.33ERA
4.64FIP
8.48K/9
4.29BB/9
1.32WHIP
CLE
3.42ERA
3.71FIP
10.07K/9
3.75BB/9
1.23WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
DET F5
2.2 runs
35.4% win
CLE F5
2.8 runs
49.7% win
F5 Total
5.0
NRFI
53.3%
YRFI
46.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.06
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
DET8 injured
Jack Flaherty SP15-DAY-IL
Kerry Carpenter RF10-DAY-IL
Matt Vierling CF10-DAY-IL
Wenceel Perez RF60-DAY-IL
Will Vest RP60-DAY-IL
Justin Verlander SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
CLE4 injured
Chase DeLauter RFDAY-TO-DAY
Colin Holderman RP15-DAY-IL
Rhys Hoskins 1B10-DAY-IL
Shawn Armstrong RP60-DAY-IL
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.