SF vs NYM prediction for September 6, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects NYM 3.6 - SF 4.2. SF is favored with a 57.6% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 7.8 total runs.
NYM
3.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
SF
4.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYMSF
-1.5
Run Line (NYM)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 61.5% (3,752 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SF
246
NYM
246
Projected
NYM 3.6 — SF 4.2
Actual
NYM 4 — SF 2
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Cesar Perdomo L
SF
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF53%93 mph37% whiff
SL40%86 mph36% whiff
CH7%87 mph33% whiff
Christian Scott R
NYM
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF47%96 mph24% whiff
ST24%81 mph29% whiff
FC18%90 mph23% whiff
Weather Impact
Citi Field
73°F7 mph wind
HR: 0.985 Total: 0.989
7mph in
Bullpen Comparison
SF
4.74ERA
4.52FIP
7.33K/9
4.36BB/9
1.50WHIP
NYM
4.31ERA
4.28FIP
9.40K/9
4.09BB/9
1.37WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SF F5
2.4 runs
48.5% win
NYM F5
1.8 runs
34.1% win
F5 Total
4.2
NRFI
55.9%
YRFI
44.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.91
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
SF8 injured
Jesus Rodriguez C60-DAY-IL
Keaton Winn RP60-DAY-IL
Victor Bericoto LF10-DAY-IL
Adrian Houser SP60-DAY-IL
Matt Gage RP60-DAY-IL
Sam Hentges RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
NYM5 injured
Devin Williams RP15-DAY-IL
Jorge Polanco DH60-DAY-IL
Cionel Perez RP15-DAY-IL
Reed Garrett RP60-DAY-IL
Tylor Megill SP60-DAY-IL
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.