CHC vs PIT prediction for July 27, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects PIT 5.2 - CHC 3.9. PIT is favored with a 56.9% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 9.1 total runs.
PIT
5.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
CHC
3.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
PITCHC
-1.5
Run Line (PIT)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 56.5% (2,930 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CHC
246
PIT
357
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Jameson Taillon R
CHC
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF28%92 mph18% whiff
FC19%86 mph24% whiff
ST16%80 mph30% whiff
Braxton Ashcraft R
PIT
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF32%97 mph14% whiff
CU26%85 mph40% whiff
SL23%92 mph31% whiff
Weather Impact
PNC Park
83°F5 mph wind
HR: 1.067 Total: 1.035
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
CHC
4.04ERA
5.13FIP
8.17K/9
4.04BB/9
1.34WHIP
PIT
4.50ERA
4.23FIP
9.39K/9
4.70BB/9
1.41WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CHC F5
1.9 runs
27.0% win
PIT F5
3.4 runs
59.9% win
F5 Total
5.3
NRFI
51.6%
YRFI
48.4%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.07
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
CHC8 injured
Trent Thornton RPDAY-TO-DAY
Phil Maton RP15-DAY-IL
Shelby Miller RP60-DAY-IL
Hunter Harvey RP60-DAY-IL
Ben Brown RP15-DAY-IL
Ethan Roberts RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
PIT7 injured
Rafael Flores Jr. C7-DAY IL
Endy Rodriguez C10-DAY-IL
Chris Devenski RP60-DAY-IL
Spencer Horwitz 1B10-DAY-IL
Oneil Cruz CF60-DAY-IL
Konnor Griffin SS60-DAY-IL
+1 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
PIT 56.9%
+15.7 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+15.7 pts
Total
9.0
+2.2 pts
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →