SD vs MIA prediction for July 27, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects MIA 4.6 - SD 3.9. MIA is favored with a 54.0% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 8.5 total runs.
MIA
4.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
SD
3.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
MIASD
+1.5
Run Line (MIA)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.5% (2,930 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SD
246
MIA
357
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Walker Buehler R
SD
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FC23%90 mph19% whiff
FF21%94 mph10% whiff
SI17%94 mph9% whiff
Janson Junk R
MIA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF35%94 mph10% whiff
SL22%86 mph13% whiff
CH19%87 mph26% whiff
Weather Impact
loanDepot park
85°F8 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 0.993 Total: 0.993
thin air, 8mph in
Bullpen Comparison
SD
3.15ERA
3.66FIP
8.41K/9
3.44BB/9
1.23WHIP
MIA
3.85ERA
3.56FIP
9.97K/9
4.48BB/9
1.21WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SD F5
2.0 runs
33.9% win
MIA F5
2.7 runs
50.5% win
F5 Total
4.7
NRFI
56.3%
YRFI
43.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.94
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
SD8 injured
Joe Musgrove SP60-DAY-IL
Lucas Giolito SP15-DAY-IL
Jeremiah Estrada RP15-DAY-IL
Nick Pivetta SP60-DAY-IL
Miguel Andujar DH10-DAY-IL
David Morgan RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
MIA8 injured
Max Meyer SP15-DAY-IL
Owen Caissie RF10-DAY-IL
Josh Ekness RP60-DAY-IL
Ronny Henriquez RP60-DAY-IL
Anthony Bender RP15-DAY-IL
William Kempner RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
MIA 54.0%
-29.6 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-29.6 pts
Total
8.5
+0.9 pts
More Projections Today
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →