FINAL: SEA 8 — CIN 0. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected SEA 4.8 - CIN 5.1 (CIN at 50.0% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 10.0 total runs.
SEA
4.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
CIN
5.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
SEACIN
-1.5
Run Line (SEA)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
CIN W4SEA L5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 49.7% (2,956 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CIN
357
SEA
357
Projected
SEA 4.8 — CIN 5.1
Actual
SEA 8 — CIN 0
Pick Results
CIN @ SEA F5 UNDER 3.5f5WIN+0.59u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Chase Burns R
CIN
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF57%98 mph15% whiff
SL37%91 mph49% whiff
CH6%90 mph27% whiff
Luis Castillo R
SEA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF44%95 mph24% whiff
SL27%85 mph24% whiff
SI16%95 mph7% whiff
Weather Impact
T-Mobile Park
80°F3 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.032 Total: 1.017
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
CIN
4.59ERA
5.23FIP
8.86K/9
5.87BB/9
1.53WHIP
SEA
3.37ERA
3.72FIP
8.85K/9
3.64BB/9
1.33WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
-30.5% EV
-105
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-30.1% EV
-185
TOTAL OVER 7.5
+20.4% EV
-115
F5_ML HOME
-15.3% EV
-159
ML HOME
-11.2% EV
-147
F5 OVER 3.5
+9.6% EV
-152
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CIN F5
2.8 runs
43.3% win
SEA F5
2.8 runs
42.9% win
F5 Total
5.5
NRFI
55.0%
YRFI
45.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.01
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.2
Over 0.5 HR
89%
Over 1.5 HR
65%
No HR
11%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Chase Burns
0.0 K projected
CIN | K/9: 0.0
Luis Castillo
0.0 K projected
SEA | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
CIN6 injured
Matt McLain 2B10-DAY-IL
Blake Dunn CF10-DAY-IL
Tony Santillan RP15-DAY-IL
Graham Ashcraft RP60-DAY-IL
Nick Lodolo SP15-DAY-IL
Brandon Williamson SP60-DAY-IL
SEA8 injured
J.P. Crawford SSDAY-TO-DAY
Rob Refsnyder DH10-DAY-IL
Brendan Donovan 3B10-DAY-IL
Cooper Criswell RP60-DAY-IL
Carlos Vargas RP60-DAY-IL
Will Wilson 3B60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1
Model projects 7.61 total with CIN slightly favored at 48.2% away prob but market slightly favors SEA (54% home implied). Pitcher matchup: Kirby (4.06 ERA, B-, 8.0 K/9) vs Abbott (4.44 ERA, C+, 8.0 K/9) — K-rate matched, Kirby slight ERA edge. Model shows minimal edges across markets (AWAY ML 3.1%, F5 UNDER 3.5 edge 2.2%, essentially neutral game). Total market-model spread (7.61 model vs 7.5 market) is negligible. SKIP due to insufficient edge and model-market alignment indicating coin-flip outcome.
Key Factors
- Pitcher K-rate identical (8.0 K/9 both) — no advantage either side
- Kirby ERA 4.06 (B- grade, 0.504 overall) vs Abbott 4.44 (C+, 0.394 overall) — Kirby slight edge but marginal (0.110 overall score gap)
- Model total 7.61 vs market 7.5 = 0.11 run spread = negligible. Both are in 7.5-7.75 range
- All edges minimal: AWAY ML 3.1%, AWAY F5_ML 4.1%, F5 UNDER 2.2% — no actionable edge
- Park factor 0.89 (PETCO-like park, slightly suppresses runs, T-Mobile has marine layer). Model appropriately depresses total
Risk Factors
- Game is essentially coin flip; any bet is -EV long term
- Away ML in weak zone (44.3% WR) + minimal edge (3.1%) = trap
- Pitcher quality gap is small; lineup quality likely determines outcome (not modeled specifically here)
INSUFFICIENT EDGENEUTRAL PITCHER MATCHUPSKIP SIGNAL
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CIN 50.0%
-9.6 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-9.6 pts
Total
7.5
+20.4 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.