PIT vs NYY prediction for July 20, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects NYY 5.9 - PIT 5.4. NYY is favored with a 53.1% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 11.3 total runs.
NYY
5.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
PIT
5.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYYPIT
+1.5
Run Line (NYY)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.4% (2,956 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
PIT
357
NYY
468
Projected
NYY 5.9 — PIT 5.4
Actual
NYY 8 — PIT 5
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Braxton Ashcraft R
PIT
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF32%97 mph14% whiff
CU26%85 mph40% whiff
SL23%92 mph32% whiff
Ryan Weathers L
NYY
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF28%96 mph16% whiff
CH23%86 mph35% whiff
ST20%81 mph41% whiff
Weather Impact
Yankee Stadium
79°F10 mph wind
HR: 1.024 Total: 1.012
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
PIT
4.50ERA
4.23FIP
9.39K/9
4.70BB/9
1.41WHIP
NYY
3.36ERA
3.71FIP
8.80K/9
3.56BB/9
1.27WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
PIT F5
3.1 runs
44.3% win
NYY F5
3.1 runs
43.4% win
F5 Total
6.2
NRFI
51.5%
YRFI
48.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.11
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
PIT6 injured
Oneil Cruz CF60-DAY-IL
Konnor Griffin SS60-DAY-IL
Endy Rodriguez C10-DAY-IL
Spencer Horwitz 1B10-DAY-IL
Evan Sisk RP15-DAY-IL
Chris Devenski RP60-DAY-IL
NYY5 injured
Carlos Rodon SP15-DAY-IL
Aaron Judge RF60-DAY-IL
Clarke Schmidt SP60-DAY-IL
Max Fried SP15-DAY-IL
Giancarlo Stanton DH10-DAY-IL
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1
Model projects 11.3 total (70.7% OVER 7.5) with 28.6% edge. High-edge zone again (YELLOW 50.1% WR). Braxton Ashcraft (3.77 Bayesian ERA, 8.0 K/9) vs Ryan Weathers (4.48 ERA, 8.0 K/9) — slight edge to away pitcher. Weather neutral (78.7F, wind neutral). Yankee Stadium park factor 1.1 (HR boost +10% typical). Lean OVER on reframed 5-15% edge.
Key Factors
- Pitcher quality matched: Ashcraft 3.77 ERA (B grade) vs Weathers 4.48 ERA (B grade) — both mid-rotation starters, nearly equivalent
- Yankee Stadium park factor 1.1 adds ~1.0 run to totals baseline vs neutral park. This is priced in market 7.5 line
- Model mean runs: home 5.86, away 5.44 = reasonable offensive output for both teams, supporting OVER edge
- F5 OVER 4.5 shows 25.1% edge at 59.5% prob — cleaner than full game OVER. F5 market may have less sophisticated pricing
- Weather neutral (78.7F, wind neutral) removes weather variance from analysis
Risk Factors
- High-edge allegory: 28.6% total edge correlates with 50.1% zone WR. Expect approximately 50/50 outcomes despite edge
- Both teams have recent injuries affecting lineups (PIT: Endy Rodriguez 10-day IL hamstring; NYY: Giancarlo Stanton 10-day IL calf)
- NYY bullpen recent usage unknown; if overextended past 3 days, edge reduces
HIGH EDGE WARNINGNEUTRAL PITCHER MATCHUPPARK FACTORF5 VALUE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
NYY 53.1%
-29.1 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-29.1 pts
Total
7.5
+28.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →