FINAL: MIL 8 — NYM 3. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected MIL 5.0 - NYM 3.6 (MIL at 59.5% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 8.6 total runs.
MIL
5.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
NYM
3.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
MILNYM
-1.5
Run Line (MIL)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
NYM L5MIL W5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.7% (2,956 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYM
246
MIL
357
Projected
MIL 5.0 — NYM 3.6
Actual
MIL 8 — NYM 3
Pick Results
MIL -1.5run_lineWIN+1.59u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Freddy Peralta R
NYM
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF53%94 mph20% whiff
CH21%87 mph24% whiff
CU13%79 mph34% whiff
Jacob Misiorowski R
MIL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF63%100 mph37% whiff
FC13%96 mph20% whiff
SL11%92 mph30% whiff
Weather Impact
American Family Field
84°F15 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.048 Total: 1.024
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
NYM
3.44ERA
3.69FIP
9.32K/9
3.58BB/9
1.21WHIP
MIL
3.66ERA
3.52FIP
9.38K/9
3.94BB/9
1.32WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-42.5% EV
-110
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
-15.3% EV
-102
ML HOME
-8.4% EV
-208
F5_ML HOME
-6.5% EV
-244
ML AWAY
+5.2% EV
+176
TOTAL OVER 7.5
+4.7% EV
-120
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYM F5
1.8 runs
29.3% win
MIL F5
3.0 runs
56.0% win
F5 Total
4.8
NRFI
55.1%
YRFI
44.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.96
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.4
Over 0.5 HR
74%
Over 1.5 HR
40%
No HR
26%
Juan Soto NYM30.0%
ISO: 0.287 | Barrel: 18.1% | vs Jacob Misiorowski | Platoon: 1.12x
Jake Bauers MIL27.6%
ISO: 0.268 | Barrel: 13.6% | vs Freddy Peralta | Platoon: 1.12x
Jackson Chourio MIL24.4%
ISO: 0.241 | Barrel: 9.7% | vs Freddy Peralta
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Freddy Peralta
0.0 K projected
NYM | K/9: 0.0
Jacob Misiorowski
0.0 K projected
MIL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
NYM7 injured
Clay Holmes SP60-DAY-IL
Justin Hagenman RP60-DAY-IL
Mark Vientos 1B10-DAY-IL
Austin Warren RP15-DAY-IL
Dedniel Nunez RP60-DAY-IL
Reed Garrett RP60-DAY-IL
+1 more
MIL8 injured
DL Hall RP15-DAY-IL
Kyle Harrison SP15-DAY-IL
Brandon Lockridge LF60-DAY-IL
David Hamilton 3B10-DAY-IL
Brandon Woodruff SP60-DAY-IL
Sal Frelick RF10-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1
Model heavily favors MIL home at 59.5% win prob, but market prices -208 (67.6% implied) — market 8.1 points sharper. Jacob Misiorowski (13.6 K/9, A- stuff, 0.851 overall score = ACE) vs Freddy Peralta (8.8 K/9, B- stuff, 0.422 overall = back-end) is MASSIVE pitcher mismatch. Lean AWAY (NYM) on edge recognition: model 5.2% edge understates market's perception of Misiorowski's dominance. Away ML 36.2% implied prob vs model 38.1% = market is more skeptical of NYM than model. Close call, but pitcher quality is decisive.
Key Factors
- PITCHER ATTRIBUTION RULE VIOLATION CHECK: Misiorowski 0.851 overall (A-), 13.6 K/9, 0.956 stuff score = ELITE ace. Peralta 0.422 overall (B-), 8.8 K/9 = back-end. Model FAVORS home (MIL 59.5%), home arm is BETTER (Misiorowski > Peralta), so this is CONSISTENT. Model underestimates pitcher advantage
- K-rate spread: Misiorowski 13.6 vs Peralta 8.8 = +4.8 K/9 differential = massive elite advantage. This should depress scoring significantly. Model total 8.62 reflects this correctly
- Market-model conflict resolved: Market -208 (67.6%) vs model 59.5% MIL = market is 8.1% sharper recognizing elite pitcher mismatch. Market is CORRECT; model underestimates pitcher impact
- AWAY lean is WRONG decision — model correctly favors home. Lean HOME instead on reframed edge: MIL home at 59.5% vs 48.5% market implied = model gives 11% edge, not 5.2% recorded
- Combo zone away ML is RED (44.3% WR) — supports home over away decision
Risk Factors
- Misiorowski elite arm should dominate but recent form unknown. Possible fatigue or injury risk
- NYM: Juan Soto (30% HR prob) is elite batter; can score despite pitcher disadvantage
- Market -208 is extreme heavy pricing; any deviation hurts bet
PITCHER MISMATCHMARKET SHARPEREXTREME ODDSELITE PITCHER ADVANTAGE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
MIL 59.5%
-1.5 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-1.5 pts
Total
7.5
+4.7 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →