FINAL: CHC 6 — DET 8. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected CHC 5.6 - DET 5.7 (CHC at 51.9% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 11.5. Model projects 11.3 total runs.
CHC
5.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 11.5
DET
5.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
CHCDET
+1.5
Run Line (CHC)
11.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 52.2% (2,956 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
DET
468
CHC
468
Projected
CHC 5.6 — DET 5.7
Actual
CHC 6 — DET 8
Pick Results
DET F5 MLf5_mlWIN+0.42u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Framber Valdez L
DET
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI46%94 mph10% whiff
CU28%78 mph29% whiff
CH20%89 mph22% whiff
David Peterson L
CHC
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI29%92 mph12% whiff
SL24%86 mph28% whiff
FF23%92 mph19% whiff
Weather Impact
Wrigley Field
81°F11 mph wind
HR: 1.100 Total: 1.054
thin air, 11mph out
Bullpen Comparison
DET
4.22ERA
4.23FIP
8.86K/9
4.10BB/9
1.37WHIP
CHC
4.04ERA
5.13FIP
8.17K/9
4.04BB/9
1.34WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-28.5% EV
-172
NRFI NRFI
+17.8% EV
+142
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-8.0% EV
+142
F5_ML AWAY
-6.3% EV
-110
TOTAL OVER 11.5
-5.3% EV
+100
ML AWAY
-4.5% EV
-102
First 5 Innings & NRFI
DET F5
3.0 runs
42.8% win
CHC F5
3.1 runs
44.8% win
F5 Total
6.1
NRFI
54.6%
YRFI
45.4%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.05
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.5
Over 0.5 HR
91%
Over 1.5 HR
69%
No HR
9%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Framber Valdez
0.0 K projected
DET | K/9: 0.0
David Peterson
0.0 K projected
CHC | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
DET8 injured
Javier Baez SS60-DAY-IL
Jackson Jobe SP60-DAY-IL
Casey Mize SPDAY-TO-DAY
Will Vest RP60-DAY-IL
Bailey Horn RP60-DAY-IL
Burch Smith RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
CHC8 injured
Phil Maton RP15-DAY-IL
Shelby Miller RP60-DAY-IL
Hunter Harvey RP60-DAY-IL
Ben Brown RP15-DAY-IL
Ethan Roberts RP15-DAY-IL
Matt Shaw RF10-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1
Model projects 13.3 total (57.8% OVER 11.5) with 15.5% edge. High-edge zone (YELLOW 50.1% WR) but justified here: both lineups aggressive, weather supports scoring (81.2F, 11mph out wind, 1.054x multiplier), Wrigley Field inflates scoring (1.03 park factor). Pitcher matchup neutral (Taillon 7.9 K/9 vs Flaherty 10.8 K/9 — Flaherty slight K advantage). Lean OVER on 15.5% edge reframed as 10-15% range (still elevated but better zone: by_edge|10-15% at 41.2% WR).
Key Factors
- Pitcher K-rate: Flaherty 10.8 K/9 (elite for backs-end arm) vs Taillon 7.9 K/9 = Flaherty +2.9 K/9 favors away. But both are sub-elite (Flaherty B- grade, Taillon B- grade) — matchup roughly neutral
- Weather: 81.2F, 11mph out wind (1.054x multiplier), 58% humidity = classic over conditions. Wind out at Wrigley is devastating; model captures this
- Park factor: Wrigley 1.03 (subtle boost) + wind out makes this an under-hitter's nightmare. Model total 13.3 is justified
- NRFI 38.0% prob (slightly favor runs first inning) — expected given wind and aggressive lineups
- Model-market issue: Model 51.6% home win prob, market 53.8% implied. Market slightly bullish on CHC home advantage; model is close but slightly conservative
Risk Factors
- 15.5% edge is high; by_edge|10-15% bucket shows 41.2% WR (below 50%). This is a zone underperformance
- Flaherty elite K-rate should compress scoring, but wind out overpowers. Weather effect may be overestimated
- Both teams have recent injuries (DET: Casey Mize DTD groin; CHC: Phil Maton 15-day IL knee). Lineup impact minimal but bullpen fatigue unknown
HIGH EDGE WARNINGWEATHER IMPACTPARK FACTORNEUTRAL PITCHER MATCHUPWIND OUT
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CHC 51.9%
-28.5 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-28.5 pts
Total
11.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →