CLE vs TB prediction for July 24, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects TB 4.5 - CLE 4.7. TB is favored with a 51.1% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.0. Model projects 9.2 total runs.
TB
4.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.0
CLE
4.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
TBCLE
-1.5
Run Line (TB)
7.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 51.0% (2,978 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CLE
357
TB
346
Projected
TB 4.5 — CLE 4.7
Actual
TB 11 — CLE 3
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Joey Cantillo L
CLE
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF35%92 mph14% whiff
CH27%81 mph41% whiff
CU26%80 mph38% whiff
Shane McClanahan L
TB
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF38%96 mph14% whiff
CH29%87 mph36% whiff
SL19%88 mph27% whiff
Weather Impact
Tropicana Field
86°F6 mph windRoof: closed
HR: 1.000 Total: 1.000
Indoor (neutral)
Bullpen Comparison
CLE
3.52ERA
3.55FIP
10.51K/9
3.50BB/9
1.23WHIP
TB
4.35ERA
4.16FIP
8.55K/9
3.50BB/9
1.33WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CLE F5
2.5 runs
42.4% win
TB F5
2.5 runs
42.8% win
F5 Total
5.0
NRFI
54.8%
YRFI
45.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.96
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
CLEHealthy
TB8 injured
Manuel Rodriguez RP60-DAY-IL
Taylor Walls SSDAY-TO-DAY
Gavin Lux LF60-DAY-IL
Jake Fraley RF10-DAY-IL
Steven Wilson RP60-DAY-IL
Steven Matz SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1
TB OVER 7.0 at 59.9% model probability (12.0% edge) is solid value in the sweet 10-15% range. McClanahan (B-, 9.3 K/9, 0.507 grade) vs Cantillo (B, 8.4 K/9, 0.553 grade) creates balanced pitching but slightly favors Cantillo (B grade > B-, better overall). Both teams' lineups produce runs: CLE 48.9% F5 win prob vs TB 42.4% suggests Tampa weak early, but full-game totals (TB 4.51 mean runs, CLE 4.74) show balanced scoring. Model projects 9.25 total (59.9% over 7.0); market at 7.0 is historically soft for indoor parks. Retractable roof Tropicana neutral baseline (1.0 factor) — no weather suppression. Edge 12% sits historically mixed but falls in the 10-15% band (43.6% recent WR, sample 39 — below confidence threshold). Still actionable given pitcher balance and market soft total.
Key Factors
- SP quality: Cantillo (B grade, 0.553, 8.4 K/9, 0.111 BB rate) slightly favors CLE over McClanahan (B-, 0.507, 9.3 K/9, 0.083 BB rate)
- Run environment: Model projects 9.25 total vs market 7.0 — 2.25-run gap at 12% edge
- Indoor park (Tropicana 1.0 factor neutral) — market may undershoot due to air-conditioning perception
- Recent 10-15% edge total band: a supportive track record suggests edge modeled correctly but historical support underperforming
- Temperature 86.5F (indoor, AC-controlled neutral) — weather non-factor
Risk Factors
- Recent 10-15% edge totals only a supportive track record in historical support analysis — below breakeven
- Market at 7.0 is conservative baseline; sharp trims on Tropicana totals indicate limit moves
- historically mixed shows no historical advantage despite edge
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →