FINAL: PIT 2 — CHC 3. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected PIT 5.0 - CHC 4.6 (PIT at 53.7% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 9.6 total runs.
PIT
5.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
CHC
4.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
PITCHC
+1.5
Run Line (PIT)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
CHC W4PIT L4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.7% (2,978 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CHC
357
PIT
357
Projected
PIT 5.0 — CHC 4.6
Actual
PIT 2 — CHC 3
Pick Results
CHC @ PIT F5 OVER 4.5f5LOSS-1.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Matthew Boyd L
CHC
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF47%93 mph16% whiff
CH27%79 mph30% whiff
SL15%83 mph48% whiff
Jared Jones R
PIT
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF45%99 mph25% whiff
SL31%90 mph34% whiff
CH15%93 mph34% whiff
Weather Impact
PNC Park
83°F7 mph wind
HR: 1.004 Total: 0.999
thin air, 7mph in
Bullpen Comparison
CHC
4.04ERA
5.13FIP
8.17K/9
4.04BB/9
1.34WHIP
PIT
4.50ERA
4.23FIP
9.39K/9
4.70BB/9
1.41WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-28.4% EV
-192
TOTAL UNDER 8.0
-14.4% EV
-105
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-13.3% EV
+160
F5_ML AWAY
-13.0% EV
-102
F5 OVER 4.5
+8.9% EV
+106
ML AWAY
-7.9% EV
-106
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CHC F5
2.4 runs
36.1% win
PIT F5
3.0 runs
50.2% win
F5 Total
5.5
NRFI
52.9%
YRFI
47.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.04
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.7
Over 0.5 HR
93%
Over 1.5 HR
74%
No HR
7%
Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC29.2%
ISO: 0.251 | Barrel: 13.0% | vs Jared Jones | Park: 0.95x Platoon: 1.12x
Seiya Suzuki CHC27.7%
ISO: 0.184 | Barrel: 16.6% | vs Jared Jones | Park: 0.95x
Bryan Reynolds PIT27.0%
ISO: 0.230 | Barrel: 10.1% | vs Matthew Boyd | Park: 0.95x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Matthew Boyd
0.0 K projected
CHC | K/9: 0.0
Jared Jones
0.0 K projected
PIT | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
CHC8 injured
Trent Thornton RPDAY-TO-DAY
Phil Maton RP15-DAY-IL
Shelby Miller RP60-DAY-IL
Hunter Harvey RP60-DAY-IL
Ben Brown RP15-DAY-IL
Ethan Roberts RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
PIT7 injured
Rafael Flores Jr. C7-DAY IL
Endy Rodriguez C10-DAY-IL
Chris Devenski RP60-DAY-IL
Spencer Horwitz 1B10-DAY-IL
Oneil Cruz CF60-DAY-IL
Konnor Griffin SS60-DAY-IL
+1 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1
PIT Over 8.0 at 56.1% model probability (4.9% edge, 323-game historically mixed at a supportive track record) exploits soft market underestimation; Boyd's 11.6 K/9 creates strikeout value, but both teams' lineups and bullpen quality (PIT 4.5 ERA vs CHC 4.04 ERA) suggest tight, low-scoring game. Better value in F5 OVER 4.5 (8.9% edge) — first 5 innings likely see more runs given cold starting pitching.
Key Factors
- F5 OVER 4.5 edge: 8.9% (52.9% model, strong first-inning value) — independent of full-game total
- Boyd K-rate dominance (11.6 K/9) vs average CHC lineup (.260 EBA) creates strikeout environment but negative run environment
- PIT home field: 1.0 park factor neutral but bullpen quality gap (4.5 ERA vs 4.04 ERA) = 0.46 ERA swing (~0.3 run penalty)
- Moderate edge (4.9%) in sweet-spot historical support
- Temperature 82.8F + 7.2 mph wind in = slight suppression multiplier 0.999, negligible impact
Risk Factors
- CHC-PIT matchup historically volatile: bullpen variance in late innings could push total either way
- historically mixed total bets (a supportive track record, n=323) suggest model modest edge; recent 30d totals at a supportive track record (breakeven)
- Boyd's high K-rate could suppress scoring despite lineup quality differential
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
PIT 53.7%
-28.4 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-28.4 pts
Total
8.0
+4.9 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →