NYY vs PHI prediction for July 24, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects PHI 4.9 - NYY 4.3. PHI is favored with a 53.8% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 9.2 total runs.
PHI
4.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
NYY
4.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
PHINYY
-1.5
Run Line (PHI)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.7% (2,978 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYY
246
PHI
357
Projected
PHI 4.9 — NYY 4.3
Actual
PHI 0 — NYY 1
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Cam Schlittler R
NYY
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF44%98 mph31% whiff
FC27%94 mph18% whiff
SI20%98 mph14% whiff
Jesús Luzardo L
PHI
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
ST37%86 mph48% whiff
FF24%97 mph13% whiff
CH20%86 mph37% whiff
Weather Impact
Citizens Bank Park
81°F8 mph wind
HR: 1.009 Total: 1.003
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
NYY
3.36ERA
3.71FIP
8.80K/9
3.56BB/9
1.27WHIP
PHI
4.19ERA
3.22FIP
10.30K/9
3.17BB/9
1.34WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYY F5
2.3 runs
35.4% win
PHI F5
3.0 runs
50.8% win
F5 Total
5.2
NRFI
49.0%
YRFI
51.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.10
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
NYY4 injured
Giancarlo Stanton DH10-DAY-IL
Carlos Rodon SP15-DAY-IL
Aaron Judge RF60-DAY-IL
Clarke Schmidt SP60-DAY-IL
PHI7 injured
Brad Keller RP60-DAY-IL
Rafael Marchan C10-DAY-IL
Garrett Stubbs C10-DAY-IL
Tanner Banks RP15-DAY-IL
Lou Trivino RP15-DAY-IL
Johan Rojas CF60-DAY-IL
+1 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1
PHI OVER 7.5 at 59.5% model probability (13.6% edge, but historically mixed totals a supportive track record suggests overcounting edge). The play is context-driven: Luzardo (B pitcher, 10.1 K/9, 0.07 BB rate) vs Schlittler (B, 9.7 K/9, 0.05 BB rate) — both solid arms. The edge lies in park factor (Citizens Bank +1.02 HR boost), weather (81.1F neutral), and lineup depth (PHI vs NYY star power). Model 59.5% prob is reasonable; edge of 13.6% is calibration-capped concern (recent totals a supportive track record). LEAN rather than BET — 1 unit, not 1.5.
Key Factors
- Pitcher parity: Luzardo (B, 0.643 grade, 10.1 K/9) vs Schlittler (B, 0.622 grade, 9.7 K/9) — near-equivalent, slight edge Luzardo (stuff 0.694 vs 0.537)
- NYY injuries: Stanton (DH 10d, power bat), Judge (RF 60d, elite power bat) = 0.4-run swing lower
- Park factor: Citizens Bank +1.02 adds ~0.3-0.4 runs to projection, partially offset by injuries
- Callibration concern: 13.6% edge historically mixed not GREEN; use 1.0 unit modifier instead of 1.5
- Temperature 81.1F (neutral) + wind -2.8 mph (slight suppression) = negligible weather impact
Risk Factors
- historically mixed totals underperform: a supportive track record indicates no real edge despite 13.6% modeled
- Recent 30d totals at a supportive track record (breakeven) — market is calibrated correctly
- High edge (13.6%) near calibration failure threshold (recent 60-65% prob bets: a supportive track record in 30d sample)
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →