COL vs WSH prediction for August 28, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects WSH 4.7 - COL 5.7. COL is favored with a 51.7% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 9.5. Model projects 10.4 total runs.
WSH
4.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.5
COL
5.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
WSHCOL
-1.5
Run Line (WSH)
9.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 52.5% (3,465 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
COL
468
WSH
357
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Gabriel Hughes R
COL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF55%92 mph15% whiff
CU10%79 mph23% whiff
CH10%87 mph10% whiff
Jake Irvin R
WSH
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF28%93 mph19% whiff
CU23%78 mph35% whiff
SI20%92 mph8% whiff
Weather Impact
Nationals Park
89°F11 mph wind
HR: 1.088 Total: 1.048
thin air, 10mph out
Bullpen Comparison
COL
4.85ERA
4.28FIP
7.54K/9
3.87BB/9
1.49WHIP
WSH
5.58ERA
5.23FIP
9.04K/9
4.88BB/9
1.58WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
COL F5
3.2 runs
48.4% win
WSH F5
2.7 runs
38.6% win
F5 Total
5.9
NRFI
46.9%
YRFI
53.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.19
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
COL8 injured
Kyle Freeland SP15-DAY-IL
Kyle Karros 3B7-DAY IL
Jose Quintana SP60-DAY-IL
Chase Dollander SP60-DAY-IL
Welinton Herrera RP60-DAY-IL
McCade Brown SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
WSH8 injured
Josiah Gray SP60-DAY-IL
Connelly Early SP60-DAY-IL
James Wood RF10-DAY-IL
DJ Herz SP60-DAY-IL
Drew Millas C10-DAY-IL
Richard Lovelady RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
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Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.