HOU vs NYY prediction for August 28, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects NYY 4.7 - HOU 4.3. NYY is favored with a 56.0% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 9.1 total runs.
NYY
4.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
HOU
4.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYYHOU
-1.5
Run Line (NYY)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 60.2% (3,465 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
HOU
246
NYY
357
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Hayden Wesneski R
HOU
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
ST31%81 mph45% whiff
FF25%94 mph12% whiff
SI19%93 mph9% whiff
Gerrit Cole R
NYY
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF48%97 mph21% whiff
SL19%90 mph26% whiff
CH14%86 mph20% whiff
Weather Impact
Yankee Stadium
73°F8 mph wind
HR: 0.993 Total: 0.994
6mph in
Bullpen Comparison
HOU
3.62ERA
4.01FIP
9.26K/9
3.56BB/9
1.20WHIP
NYY
3.07ERA
3.99FIP
8.54K/9
3.57BB/9
1.22WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
HOU F5
2.6 runs
41.9% win
NYY F5
2.7 runs
44.6% win
F5 Total
5.3
NRFI
52.8%
YRFI
47.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.01
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
HOU4 injured
Mike Burrows SP15-DAY-IL
Brice Matthews CF60-DAY-IL
Carlos Correa SS60-DAY-IL
Brandon Walter SP60-DAY-IL
NYY8 injured
Clarke Schmidt SP60-DAY-IL
Fernando Cruz RP15-DAY-IL
Kervin Castro RP60-DAY-IL
Aaron Judge RF60-DAY-IL
Max Fried SP15-DAY-IL
Giancarlo Stanton DH60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
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Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.