CWS vs SD prediction for May 2, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SD 3.6 - CWS 3.6. SD is favored with a 50.9% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 7.2 total runs.
SD
3.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
CWS
3.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
SDCWS
-1.5
Run Line (SD)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.5% (2,610 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CWS
246
SD
246
Projected
SD 3.6 — CWS 3.6
Actual
SD 0 — CWS 4
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Sean Burke R
CWS
FF38%94 mph18% whiff
KC22%79 mph19% whiff
SI15%94 mph7% whiff
Michael King R
SD
SI28%93 mph11% whiff
CH27%86 mph25% whiff
ST20%82 mph29% whiff
Weather Impact
PETCO Park
66°F8 mph wind
HR: 0.991 Total: 0.993
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
CWS
5.28ERA
5.03FIP
8.54K/9
5.85BB/9
1.61WHIP
SD
4.50ERA
3.93FIP
7.71K/9
3.81BB/9
1.41WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-33.2% EV
-143
TOTAL OVER 8.0
-27.3% EV
-105
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-22.9% EV
+118
F5_ML HOME
-21.8% EV
-172
F5_ML AWAY
+19.2% EV
+136
ML AWAY
+17.2% EV
+154
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CWS F5
2.1 runs
44.1% win
SD F5
1.8 runs
37.3% win
F5 Total
3.9
NRFI
62.4%
YRFI
37.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.72
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.2
Over 0.5 HR
90%
Over 1.5 HR
64%
No HR
10%
Munetaka Murakami CWS30.0%
ISO: 0.337 | Barrel: 19.8% | vs Michael King | Park: 0.90x Platoon: 1.12x
Colson Montgomery CWS30.0%
ISO: 0.231 | Barrel: 16.2% | vs Michael King | Park: 0.90x Platoon: 1.12x
Gavin Sheets SD30.0%
ISO: 0.265 | Barrel: 12.2% | vs Sean Burke | Park: 0.90x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Sean Burke
0.0 K projected
CWS | K/9: 0.0
Michael King
0.0 K projected
SD | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
CWSHealthy
SD8 injured
Griffin Canning SP15-DAY-IL
Will Wagner 3B10-DAY-IL
Yuki Matsui RP15-DAY-IL
Bryan Hoeing RP60-DAY-IL
Nick Pivetta SP15-DAY-IL
Joe Musgrove SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEANRED ZONE44.0% WR (n=136)
Model projects 50.9% home win vs 39.4% market (SD -185 = 64.9% implied). Market prices CWS underdog heavily. Model shows 17.2% edge on CWS ML — but away ML is RED zone (44% WR, -1.54 z-score). Away favorite profile is also weak historically (67.3% WR but sample only 49 bets). Market at -185 (64.9% SD) is respecting home field + Michael King's strength. Lean CWS with extreme caution; F5 UNDER and NRFI are better plays.
Key Factors
- King 2.6 ERA vs Burke 3.47 ERA — 0.87 ERA delta, marginal difference. Both B- grade pitchers.
- PETCO park (0.9 factor) suppresses runs. Model 7.2 vs market 8.0 = 0.8 run edge on UNDER
- Away ML red zone (44% WR) suggests model overvalues CWS dog — market's -185 (64.9% SD) likely more accurate
- F5 UNDER 4.5 shows +9.4% edge (model 62.2%) — better isolated play than full-game ML
Risk Factors
- Away dog ML is RED zone historically — 44% WR is systemic underperformance by model on road underdogs
- King's quality (2.6 ERA, +1.216 quality bullpen) likely sufficient to suppress CWS scoring
- CWS weak bullpen (5.28 ERA, 0.852 quality) — late-game vulnerability
PITCHER MISMATCHRED ZONEPARK FACTOR
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
SD 50.9%
-22.9 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-22.9 pts
Total
8.0
+7.4 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →