CWS vs SD prediction for May 2, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SD 3.6 - CWS 3.6. SD is favored with a 50.9% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 7.2 total runs.
SD
3.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
CWS
3.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
SDCWS
-1.5
Run Line (SD)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CWS
246
SD
246
Projected
SD 3.6 — CWS 3.6
Actual
SD 0 — CWS 4
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Sean Burke R
CWS
FF38%94 mph18% whiff
KC22%79 mph19% whiff
SI15%94 mph7% whiff
Michael King R
SD
SI28%93 mph11% whiff
CH27%86 mph25% whiff
ST20%82 mph29% whiff
Weather Impact
PETCO Park
66°F8 mph wind
HR: 0.991 Total: 0.993
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
CWS
5.28ERA
5.03FIP
8.54K/9
5.85BB/9
1.61WHIP
SD
4.50ERA
3.93FIP
7.71K/9
3.81BB/9
1.41WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-33.2% EV
-143
TOTAL OVER 8.0
-27.3% EV
-105
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-22.9% EV
+118
F5_ML HOME
-21.8% EV
-172
F5_ML AWAY
+19.2% EV
+136
ML AWAY
+17.2% EV
+154
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CWS F5
2.1 runs
44.1% win
SD F5
1.8 runs
37.3% win
F5 Total
3.9
NRFI
62.4%
YRFI
37.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.72
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.2
Over 0.5 HR
90%
Over 1.5 HR
64%
No HR
10%
Munetaka Murakami CWS30.0%
ISO: 0.337 | Barrel: 19.8% | vs Michael King | Park: 0.90x Platoon: 1.12x
Colson Montgomery CWS30.0%
ISO: 0.231 | Barrel: 16.2% | vs Michael King | Park: 0.90x Platoon: 1.12x
Gavin Sheets SD30.0%
ISO: 0.265 | Barrel: 12.2% | vs Sean Burke | Park: 0.90x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Sean Burke
0.0 K projected
CWS | K/9: 0.0
Michael King
0.0 K projected
SD | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
CWSHealthy
SD8 injured
Griffin Canning SP15-DAY-IL
Will Wagner 3B10-DAY-IL
Yuki Matsui RP15-DAY-IL
Bryan Hoeing RP60-DAY-IL
Nick Pivetta SP15-DAY-IL
Joe Musgrove SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEANRED ZONE44.0% WR (n=136)
Model projects 50.9% home win vs 39.4% market (SD -185 = 64.9% implied). Market prices CWS underdog heavily. Model shows 17.2% edge on CWS ML — but away ML is RED zone (44% WR, -1.54 z-score). Away favorite profile is also weak historically (67.3% WR but sample only 49 bets). Market at -185 (64.9% SD) is respecting home field + Michael King's strength. Lean CWS with extreme caution; F5 UNDER and NRFI are better plays.
Key Factors
- King 2.6 ERA vs Burke 3.47 ERA — 0.87 ERA delta, marginal difference. Both B- grade pitchers.
- PETCO park (0.9 factor) suppresses runs. Model 7.2 vs market 8.0 = 0.8 run edge on UNDER
- Away ML red zone (44% WR) suggests model overvalues CWS dog — market's -185 (64.9% SD) likely more accurate
- F5 UNDER 4.5 shows +9.4% edge (model 62.2%) — better isolated play than full-game ML
Risk Factors
- Away dog ML is RED zone historically — 44% WR is systemic underperformance by model on road underdogs
- King's quality (2.6 ERA, +1.216 quality bullpen) likely sufficient to suppress CWS scoring
- CWS weak bullpen (5.28 ERA, 0.852 quality) — late-game vulnerability
PITCHER MISMATCHRED ZONEPARK FACTOR
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
SD 50.9%
-22.9 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-22.9 pts
Total
8.0
+7.4 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →