DET vs ATL prediction for April 30, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects ATL 2.9 - DET 4.2. DET is favored with a 61.7% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 7.1 total runs.
ATL
2.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
DET
4.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
ATLDET
-1.5
Run Line (ATL)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 65.3% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
DET
246
ATL
135
Projected
ATL 2.9 — DET 4.2
Actual
ATL 2 — DET 5
Pick Results
Mauricio Dubon OVER 0.5 Strikeoutsbatter_ksLOSS-0.50u
Matt Olson OVER 0.5 Hitsbatter_hitsLOSS-1.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Framber Valdez L
DET
SI48%94 mph9% whiff
CU30%78 mph29% whiff
CH20%89 mph19% whiff
Bryce Elder R
ATL
SL33%83 mph31% whiff
FF23%92 mph9% whiff
SI21%91 mph19% whiff
Weather Impact
Truist Park
67°F10 mph wind
HR: 1.011 Total: 1.004
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
DET
4.59ERA
4.59FIP
8.65K/9
4.83BB/9
1.51WHIP
ATL
3.24ERA
2.91FIP
10.03K/9
3.21BB/9
1.18WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-31.5% EV
+172
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-30.8% EV
-115
F5_ML HOME
-25.7% EV
-112
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-25.4% EV
-208
ML HOME
-23.6% EV
-122
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
+22.8% EV
-105
First 5 Innings & NRFI
DET F5
2.2 runs
51.1% win
ATL F5
1.4 runs
28.4% win
F5 Total
3.6
NRFI
67.8%
YRFI
32.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.61
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.7
Over 0.5 HR
82%
Over 1.5 HR
51%
No HR
18%
Kerry Carpenter DET30.0%
ISO: 0.301 | Barrel: 15.6% | vs Bryce Elder | Platoon: 1.12x
Matt Olson ATL30.0%
ISO: 0.276 | Barrel: 19.0% | vs Framber Valdez
Spencer Torkelson DET29.1%
ISO: 0.240 | Barrel: 12.6% | vs Bryce Elder
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Framber Valdez
0.0 K projected
DET | K/9: 0.0
Bryce Elder
0.0 K projected
ATL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
DET8 injured
Javier Baez SS10-DAY-IL
Casey Mize SP15-DAY-IL
Jackson Jobe SP60-DAY-IL
Connor Seabold RP15-DAY-IL
Justin Verlander SP15-DAY-IL
Bailey Horn RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
ATL8 injured
Raisel Iglesias RP15-DAY-IL
Spencer Strider SP15-DAY-IL
Spencer Schwellenbach SP60-DAY-IL
Hurston Waldrep SP15-DAY-IL
Sean Murphy C10-DAY-IL
Ha-Seong Kim SS10-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1GREEN ZONE58.0% WR (n=104)
Elder (2.11 ERA) dominates Valdez (3.68 ERA) in pitcher matchup; Under 8.5 is GREEN-zone play with 22.8% edge despite 63% model prob vs 37% market, but skip ML given HIGH_EDGE_WARNING (18%+ edges historically worst WR).
Key Factors
- SP mismatch: Elder 2.11 ERA, 21.2% K-rate (B- grade) vs Valdez 3.68 ERA, 16.3% K-rate (C+ grade) — 1.57 gap = ~10% win prob swing
- Under 8.5 showing 63.0% model prob vs 37% market implied = 26 percentage point gap in GREEN zone historically
- NRFI 63.8% and F5 Under 64.1% suggest quiet, low-scoring profile from start
- Weather neutral (66.8°F, slight tail wind), park neutral (1.0) — SP quality drives the under case
- Valence check: Model projects 7.06 total runs; market priced 8.5 = 1.44 run gap
Risk Factors
- 18.4% ML edge in historically worst-performing zone (38.1% WR) — high edges are model red flag
- Away ML in RED zone (41.1% win rate) — market knows something on DET value
- Weather data sparse (no wind speed); could shift total by 0.5 if breezy
HIGH EDGE WARNINGPITCHER MISMATCHGREEN ZONETOTALS VALUENRFI
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
DET 61.7%
-31.5 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-31.5 pts
Total
8.5
+22.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →