DET vs ATL prediction for April 30, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects ATL 2.9 - DET 4.2. DET is favored with a 61.7% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 7.1 total runs.
ATL
2.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
DET
4.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
ATLDET
-1.5
Run Line (ATL)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
DET W5ATL
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 61.6% (2,610 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
DET
246
ATL
135
Projected
ATL 2.9 — DET 4.2
Actual
ATL 2 — DET 5
Pick Results
Mauricio Dubon OVER 0.5 Strikeoutsbatter_ksLOSS-0.50u
Matt Olson OVER 0.5 Hitsbatter_hitsLOSS-1.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Framber Valdez L
DET
SI48%94 mph9% whiff
CU30%78 mph29% whiff
CH20%89 mph19% whiff
Bryce Elder R
ATL
SL33%83 mph31% whiff
FF23%92 mph9% whiff
SI21%91 mph19% whiff
Weather Impact
Truist Park
67°F10 mph wind
HR: 1.011 Total: 1.004
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
DET
4.59ERA
4.59FIP
8.65K/9
4.83BB/9
1.51WHIP
ATL
3.24ERA
2.91FIP
10.03K/9
3.21BB/9
1.18WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-31.5% EV
+172
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-30.8% EV
-115
F5_ML HOME
-25.7% EV
-112
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-25.4% EV
-208
ML HOME
-23.6% EV
-122
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
+22.8% EV
-105
First 5 Innings & NRFI
DET F5
2.2 runs
51.1% win
ATL F5
1.4 runs
28.4% win
F5 Total
3.6
NRFI
67.8%
YRFI
32.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.61
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.7
Over 0.5 HR
82%
Over 1.5 HR
51%
No HR
18%
Kerry Carpenter DET30.0%
ISO: 0.301 | Barrel: 15.6% | vs Bryce Elder | Platoon: 1.12x
Matt Olson ATL30.0%
ISO: 0.276 | Barrel: 19.0% | vs Framber Valdez
Spencer Torkelson DET29.1%
ISO: 0.240 | Barrel: 12.6% | vs Bryce Elder
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Framber Valdez
0.0 K projected
DET | K/9: 0.0
Bryce Elder
0.0 K projected
ATL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
DET8 injured
Javier Baez SS10-DAY-IL
Casey Mize SP15-DAY-IL
Jackson Jobe SP60-DAY-IL
Connor Seabold RP15-DAY-IL
Justin Verlander SP15-DAY-IL
Bailey Horn RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
ATL8 injured
Raisel Iglesias RP15-DAY-IL
Spencer Strider SP15-DAY-IL
Spencer Schwellenbach SP60-DAY-IL
Hurston Waldrep SP15-DAY-IL
Sean Murphy C10-DAY-IL
Ha-Seong Kim SS10-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1GREEN ZONE58.0% WR (n=104)
Elder (2.11 ERA) dominates Valdez (3.68 ERA) in pitcher matchup; Under 8.5 is GREEN-zone play with 22.8% edge despite 63% model prob vs 37% market, but skip ML given HIGH_EDGE_WARNING (18%+ edges historically worst WR).
Key Factors
- SP mismatch: Elder 2.11 ERA, 21.2% K-rate (B- grade) vs Valdez 3.68 ERA, 16.3% K-rate (C+ grade) — 1.57 gap = ~10% win prob swing
- Under 8.5 showing 63.0% model prob vs 37% market implied = 26 percentage point gap in GREEN zone historically
- NRFI 63.8% and F5 Under 64.1% suggest quiet, low-scoring profile from start
- Weather neutral (66.8°F, slight tail wind), park neutral (1.0) — SP quality drives the under case
- Valence check: Model projects 7.06 total runs; market priced 8.5 = 1.44 run gap
Risk Factors
- 18.4% ML edge in historically worst-performing zone (38.1% WR) — high edges are model red flag
- Away ML in RED zone (41.1% win rate) — market knows something on DET value
- Weather data sparse (no wind speed); could shift total by 0.5 if breezy
HIGH EDGE WARNINGPITCHER MISMATCHGREEN ZONETOTALS VALUENRFI
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
DET 61.7%
-31.5 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-31.5 pts
Total
8.5
+22.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →