SF vs PHI prediction for April 30, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects PHI 3.4 - SF 2.6. PHI is favored with a 61.3% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 5.9 total runs.
PHI
3.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
SF
2.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
PHISF
-1.5
Run Line (PHI)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 60.7% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SF
135
PHI
135
Projected
PHI 3.4 — SF 2.6
Actual
PHI 6 — SF 5
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Logan Webb R
SF
SI37%92 mph10% whiff
CH25%86 mph25% whiff
ST21%84 mph16% whiff
Cristopher Sánchez L
PHI
SI45%95 mph10% whiff
CH35%86 mph46% whiff
SL20%86 mph36% whiff
Weather Impact
Citizens Bank Park
63°F8 mph wind
HR: 0.993 Total: 0.994
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
SF
3.06ERA
3.86FIP
9.43K/9
4.57BB/9
1.28WHIP
PHI
4.18ERA
3.47FIP
9.50K/9
3.32BB/9
1.35WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-49.9% EV
-192
TOTAL OVER 7.5
-35.6% EV
-105
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
+25.3% EV
-115
F5 UNDER 4.5
+24.0% EV
-135
F5_ML AWAY
-18.8% EV
+114
ML AWAY
-14.5% EV
+112
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SF F5
1.1 runs
27.6% win
PHI F5
1.8 runs
49.1% win
F5 Total
3.0
NRFI
67.7%
YRFI
32.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.58
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.6
Over 0.5 HR
79%
Over 1.5 HR
46%
No HR
21%
Kyle Schwarber PHI30.0%
ISO: 0.411 | Barrel: 18.1% | vs Logan Webb | Park: 1.02x Platoon: 1.12x
Bryce Harper PHI20.8%
ISO: 0.250 | Barrel: 13.8% | vs Logan Webb | Park: 1.02x Platoon: 1.12x
Brandon Marsh PHI19.9%
ISO: 0.219 | Barrel: 8.5% | vs Logan Webb | Park: 1.02x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Logan Webb
0.0 K projected
SF | K/9: 0.0
Cristopher Sánchez
0.0 K projected
PHI | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SF8 injured
Jared Oliva CF60-DAY-IL
Daniel Susac C10-DAY-IL
Jason Foley RP60-DAY-IL
Harrison Bader CF10-DAY-IL
Jose Butto RP60-DAY-IL
Sam Hentges RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
PHI8 injured
Jhoan Duran RP15-DAY-IL
J.T. Realmuto C10-DAY-IL
Max Lazar RP60-DAY-IL
Zach Pop RP15-DAY-IL
Daniel Robert RPDAY-TO-DAY
Keaton Anthony 1BDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1GREEN ZONE61.0% WR (n=108)
Sánchez (3.18 ERA) dominates Webb (5.25 ERA) in tight pitcher matchup; Under 7.5 displays 25.3% edge in GREEN zone with exceptional quiet-game profile (NRFI 67.7%, F5 under 71.3%), best value on slate despite modest home ML edge.
Key Factors
- SP mismatch: Sánchez 3.18 ERA, 27.8% K-rate (B grade) vs Webb 5.25 ERA, 19.9% K-rate (C+ grade) — 2.07 ERA gap favors home
- Under 7.5 at 25.3% edge in GREEN zone (61% historical WR across 108 bets) — exceptional value signal
- NRFI 67.7% and F5 Under 71.3% suggest both teams quiet/weak early-inning offense profile
- Webb K-rate collapse (19.9% vs Sánchez 27.8%) = strikeout edge for Sánchez
- Weather neutral (63°F, -4.1 mph, 61% humidity) but both SPs' command grades (B+ for Sánchez, B for Webb) anchor low-scoring game
Risk Factors
- Home ML edge only 5.1% — avoid Phillies ML despite pitcher quality
- Market total 7.5 is substantial ask; sharp money may defend over position we're not seeing
PITCHER MISMATCHGREEN ZONETOTALS VALUENRFI
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
PHI 61.3%
+0.2 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+0.2 pts
Total
7.5
+25.3 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →