SF vs PHI prediction for April 30, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects PHI 3.4 - SF 2.6. PHI is favored with a 61.3% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 5.9 total runs.
PHI
3.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
SF
2.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
PHISF
-1.5
Run Line (PHI)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 61.4% (2,610 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SF
135
PHI
135
Projected
PHI 3.4 — SF 2.6
Actual
PHI 6 — SF 5
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Logan Webb R
SF
SI37%92 mph10% whiff
CH25%86 mph25% whiff
ST21%84 mph16% whiff
Cristopher Sánchez L
PHI
SI45%95 mph10% whiff
CH35%86 mph46% whiff
SL20%86 mph36% whiff
Weather Impact
Citizens Bank Park
63°F8 mph wind
HR: 0.993 Total: 0.994
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
SF
3.06ERA
3.86FIP
9.43K/9
4.57BB/9
1.28WHIP
PHI
4.18ERA
3.47FIP
9.50K/9
3.32BB/9
1.35WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-49.9% EV
-192
TOTAL OVER 7.5
-35.6% EV
-105
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
+25.3% EV
-115
F5 UNDER 4.5
+24.0% EV
-135
F5_ML AWAY
-18.8% EV
+114
ML AWAY
-14.5% EV
+112
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SF F5
1.1 runs
27.6% win
PHI F5
1.8 runs
49.1% win
F5 Total
3.0
NRFI
67.7%
YRFI
32.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.58
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.6
Over 0.5 HR
79%
Over 1.5 HR
46%
No HR
21%
Kyle Schwarber PHI30.0%
ISO: 0.411 | Barrel: 18.1% | vs Logan Webb | Park: 1.02x Platoon: 1.12x
Bryce Harper PHI20.8%
ISO: 0.250 | Barrel: 13.8% | vs Logan Webb | Park: 1.02x Platoon: 1.12x
Brandon Marsh PHI19.9%
ISO: 0.219 | Barrel: 8.5% | vs Logan Webb | Park: 1.02x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Logan Webb
0.0 K projected
SF | K/9: 0.0
Cristopher Sánchez
0.0 K projected
PHI | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SF8 injured
Jared Oliva CF60-DAY-IL
Daniel Susac C10-DAY-IL
Jason Foley RP60-DAY-IL
Harrison Bader CF10-DAY-IL
Jose Butto RP60-DAY-IL
Sam Hentges RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
PHI8 injured
Jhoan Duran RP15-DAY-IL
J.T. Realmuto C10-DAY-IL
Max Lazar RP60-DAY-IL
Zach Pop RP15-DAY-IL
Daniel Robert RPDAY-TO-DAY
Keaton Anthony 1BDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1GREEN ZONE61.0% WR (n=108)
Sánchez (3.18 ERA) dominates Webb (5.25 ERA) in tight pitcher matchup; Under 7.5 displays 25.3% edge in GREEN zone with exceptional quiet-game profile (NRFI 67.7%, F5 under 71.3%), best value on slate despite modest home ML edge.
Key Factors
- SP mismatch: Sánchez 3.18 ERA, 27.8% K-rate (B grade) vs Webb 5.25 ERA, 19.9% K-rate (C+ grade) — 2.07 ERA gap favors home
- Under 7.5 at 25.3% edge in GREEN zone (61% historical WR across 108 bets) — exceptional value signal
- NRFI 67.7% and F5 Under 71.3% suggest both teams quiet/weak early-inning offense profile
- Webb K-rate collapse (19.9% vs Sánchez 27.8%) = strikeout edge for Sánchez
- Weather neutral (63°F, -4.1 mph, 61% humidity) but both SPs' command grades (B+ for Sánchez, B for Webb) anchor low-scoring game
Risk Factors
- Home ML edge only 5.1% — avoid Phillies ML despite pitcher quality
- Market total 7.5 is substantial ask; sharp money may defend over position we're not seeing
PITCHER MISMATCHGREEN ZONETOTALS VALUENRFI
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
PHI 61.3%
+0.2 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+0.2 pts
Total
7.5
+25.3 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →