WSH vs NYM prediction for April 30, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects NYM 2.7 - WSH 3.1. WSH is favored with a 53.5% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 5.9 total runs.
NYM
2.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
WSH
3.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYMWSH
-1.5
Run Line (NYM)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
WSH
135
NYM
135
Projected
NYM 2.7 — WSH 3.1
Actual
NYM 4 — WSH 5
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Miles Mikolas R
WSH
FF26%93 mph23% whiff
SI22%92 mph14% whiff
SL16%87 mph21% whiff
Freddy Peralta R
NYM
FF52%94 mph22% whiff
CH23%87 mph29% whiff
CU13%80 mph33% whiff
Weather Impact
Citi Field
52°F3 mph wind
HR: 0.995 Total: 0.997
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
WSH
4.90ERA
5.10FIP
7.84K/9
4.69BB/9
1.48WHIP
NYM
3.97ERA
3.49FIP
10.12K/9
3.37BB/9
1.26WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 7.5
-38.5% EV
-115
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-34.7% EV
+112
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-31.3% EV
-133
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
+30.8% EV
-105
ML AWAY
+28.1% EV
+160
F5_ML AWAY
+27.0% EV
+164
First 5 Innings & NRFI
WSH F5
1.7 runs
40.2% win
NYM F5
1.5 runs
36.5% win
F5 Total
3.2
NRFI
63.0%
YRFI
37.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.67
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.7
Over 0.5 HR
82%
Over 1.5 HR
51%
No HR
18%
James Wood WSH30.0%
ISO: 0.311 | Barrel: 17.9% | vs Freddy Peralta | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
CJ Abrams WSH30.0%
ISO: 0.333 | Barrel: 13.7% | vs Freddy Peralta | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Juan Soto NYM30.0%
ISO: 0.264 | Barrel: 12.5% | vs Miles Mikolas | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Miles Mikolas
0.0 K projected
WSH | K/9: 0.0
Freddy Peralta
0.0 K projected
NYM | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
WSH8 injured
Clayton Beeter RP15-DAY-IL
Tyler Baum DHDAY-TO-DAY
Josiah Gray SP60-DAY-IL
Cole Henry RP15-DAY-IL
Ken Waldichuk RP60-DAY-IL
Trevor Williams SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
NYM8 injured
Luis Robert Jr. CF10-DAY-IL
Kodai Senga SP15-DAY-IL
Francisco Lindor SS10-DAY-IL
Jorge Polanco 1B10-DAY-IL
Kevin Herget RPDAY-TO-DAY
Jared Young 1B10-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -2RED ZONE41.1% WR (n=375)
Massive contradictions: model sees away value (49.3% vs 38.5% market implied = 28% edge) but market heavily favors home (65% implied) — sharp consensus opposes model. Both Away ML and Under edges >25% in RED/YELLOW zones historically underperform. Avoid entirely despite attractive numbers.
Key Factors
- Mikolas 9.17 ERA (C+ grade, historically weak) yet market still heavily favors home (65%) — suggests WSH lineup/bullpen weakness not reflected in SP quality alone
- Model 49.3% away (Mikolas disadvantage) vs market 38.5% = 28% edge in RED zone (41% WR historically)
- Under 7.5 edge 30.8% also in RED zone — high edges are model failure mode
- Peralta 4.21 ERA (B- grade) is solid but not dominant; market respects Mets home field despite roster struggles
- Cold, damp weather (52°F, 95% humidity) should suppress runs but market still pricing high
Risk Factors
- HIGH_EDGE_WARNING on both away ML (28%) and Under (30%) — these are zones where model has been dead wrong (38-41% WR)
- Sharp money heavily favoring home despite Mikolas poor ERA — market clearly has information on WSH weakness model doesn't capture
- 28-30% edges in RED zones = classic overconfidence; model is likely wrong on away value
HIGH EDGE WARNINGRED ZONESHARP OPPOSITIONDATA INTEGRITY
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
WSH 53.5%
-34.7 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-34.7 pts
Total
7.5
+30.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →