STL vs PIT prediction for April 30, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects PIT 3.0 - STL 3.1. PIT is favored with a 50.1% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 6.0 total runs.
PIT
3.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
STL
3.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
PITSTL
-1.5
Run Line (PIT)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
STL
135
PIT
135
Projected
PIT 3.0 — STL 3.1
Actual
PIT 5 — STL 10
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Hunter Dobbins R
STL
FF40%96 mph10% whiff
SL27%88 mph28% whiff
CU12%79 mph38% whiff
Paul Skenes R
PIT
FF37%97 mph23% whiff
SI18%97 mph6% whiff
ST16%84 mph26% whiff
Weather Impact
PNC Park
47°F11 mph wind
HR: 0.968 Total: 0.980
8mph in
Bullpen Comparison
STL
5.18ERA
4.43FIP
7.87K/9
5.09BB/9
1.48WHIP
PIT
3.58ERA
3.99FIP
9.84K/9
4.45BB/9
1.32WHIP
Betting Edges
F5_ML AWAY
+39.0% EV
+215
TOTAL OVER 7.5
-34.2% EV
+100
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-32.5% EV
-120
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-30.8% EV
+100
ML AWAY
+29.9% EV
+184
F5_ML HOME
-24.0% EV
-278
First 5 Innings & NRFI
STL F5
1.4 runs
36.8% win
PIT F5
1.5 runs
38.1% win
F5 Total
2.9
NRFI
67.6%
YRFI
32.4%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.59
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.3
Over 0.5 HR
72%
Over 1.5 HR
37%
No HR
28%
Brandon Lowe PIT28.6%
ISO: 0.357 | Barrel: 15.8% | vs Hunter Dobbins | Park: 0.95x Platoon: 1.12x
Oneil Cruz PIT22.9%
ISO: 0.215 | Barrel: 15.2% | vs Hunter Dobbins | Park: 0.95x Platoon: 1.12x
JJ Wetherholt STL16.3%
ISO: 0.227 | Barrel: 11.7% | vs Paul Skenes | Park: 0.95x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Hunter Dobbins
0.0 K projected
STL | K/9: 0.0
Paul Skenes
0.0 K projected
PIT | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
STL8 injured
Hunter Dobbins SP15-DAY-IL
Matt Pushard RP15-DAY-IL
Packy Naughton RPDAY-TO-DAY
Ixan Henderson SPDAY-TO-DAY
Lars Nootbaar LF60-DAY-IL
Victor Santos RPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
PIT7 injured
Jared Jones SP60-DAY-IL
Jared Triolo SS10-DAY-IL
Sean Sullivan SPDAY-TO-DAY
Dominic Fletcher RFDAY-TO-DAY
Anthony Solometo SPDAY-TO-DAY
Mike Clevinger RPDAY-TO-DAY
+1 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEANGREEN ZONE66.7% WR (n=21)
Cold weather (47°F, 8 mph wind in) + Skenes (2.68 ERA ace) anchor Under 7.5 at 22.1% edge in GREEN zone, but SKIP away ML due to HIGH_EDGE_WARNING (30% edge in RED zone) and TBD Dobbins pitcher status introducing uncertainty.
Key Factors
- Cold weather (47°F, -7.8 mph wind in, 80% humidity) = severe run suppression of 0.5-1.0 runs from baseline
- Skenes 2.68 ERA (B- ace) anchors home, but Dobbins pitcher TBD (N/A ERA in data) = uncertainty on STL SP quality
- Under 7.5 at 22.1% edge in GREEN zone (66.7% historical WR on similar 20%+ under edges)
- Market implied 69% home win prob vs model 54.3% = massive disconnect suggesting sharp money has Dobbins information model lacks
- Model projects 6.0 total on 7.5 market = 1.5 run gap (substantial)
Risk Factors
- Away ML 30% edge in RED zone (41.1% WR) — classic overconfidence signal; market's 69% home seems reasonable given Dobbins unknown status
- TBD pitcher (Dobbins) = data integrity risk; model may be wrong on entire matchup if Dobbins is weak
- Sharp consensus heavily favoring home despite model edge — suggests market knows something model doesn't
TBD PITCHERHIGH EDGE WARNINGRED ZONEWEATHER IMPACTSHARP OPPOSITION
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
PIT 50.1%
-30.8 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-30.8 pts
Total
7.5
+22.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →