STL vs PIT prediction for April 30, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects PIT 3.0 - STL 3.1. PIT is favored with a 50.1% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 6.0 total runs.
PIT
3.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
STL
3.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
PITSTL
-1.5
Run Line (PIT)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 49.8% (2,610 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
STL
135
PIT
135
Projected
PIT 3.0 — STL 3.1
Actual
PIT 5 — STL 10
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Hunter Dobbins R
STL
FF40%96 mph10% whiff
SL27%88 mph28% whiff
CU12%79 mph38% whiff
Paul Skenes R
PIT
FF37%97 mph23% whiff
SI18%97 mph6% whiff
ST16%84 mph26% whiff
Weather Impact
PNC Park
47°F11 mph wind
HR: 0.968 Total: 0.980
8mph in
Bullpen Comparison
STL
5.18ERA
4.43FIP
7.87K/9
5.09BB/9
1.48WHIP
PIT
3.58ERA
3.99FIP
9.84K/9
4.45BB/9
1.32WHIP
Betting Edges
F5_ML AWAY
+39.0% EV
+215
TOTAL OVER 7.5
-34.2% EV
+100
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-32.5% EV
-120
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-30.8% EV
+100
ML AWAY
+29.9% EV
+184
F5_ML HOME
-24.0% EV
-278
First 5 Innings & NRFI
STL F5
1.4 runs
36.8% win
PIT F5
1.5 runs
38.1% win
F5 Total
2.9
NRFI
67.6%
YRFI
32.4%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.59
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.3
Over 0.5 HR
72%
Over 1.5 HR
37%
No HR
28%
Brandon Lowe PIT28.6%
ISO: 0.357 | Barrel: 15.8% | vs Hunter Dobbins | Park: 0.95x Platoon: 1.12x
Oneil Cruz PIT22.9%
ISO: 0.215 | Barrel: 15.2% | vs Hunter Dobbins | Park: 0.95x Platoon: 1.12x
JJ Wetherholt STL16.3%
ISO: 0.227 | Barrel: 11.7% | vs Paul Skenes | Park: 0.95x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Hunter Dobbins
0.0 K projected
STL | K/9: 0.0
Paul Skenes
0.0 K projected
PIT | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
STL8 injured
Hunter Dobbins SP15-DAY-IL
Matt Pushard RP15-DAY-IL
Packy Naughton RPDAY-TO-DAY
Ixan Henderson SPDAY-TO-DAY
Lars Nootbaar LF60-DAY-IL
Victor Santos RPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
PIT7 injured
Jared Jones SP60-DAY-IL
Jared Triolo SS10-DAY-IL
Sean Sullivan SPDAY-TO-DAY
Dominic Fletcher RFDAY-TO-DAY
Anthony Solometo SPDAY-TO-DAY
Mike Clevinger RPDAY-TO-DAY
+1 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEANGREEN ZONE66.7% WR (n=21)
Cold weather (47°F, 8 mph wind in) + Skenes (2.68 ERA ace) anchor Under 7.5 at 22.1% edge in GREEN zone, but SKIP away ML due to HIGH_EDGE_WARNING (30% edge in RED zone) and TBD Dobbins pitcher status introducing uncertainty.
Key Factors
- Cold weather (47°F, -7.8 mph wind in, 80% humidity) = severe run suppression of 0.5-1.0 runs from baseline
- Skenes 2.68 ERA (B- ace) anchors home, but Dobbins pitcher TBD (N/A ERA in data) = uncertainty on STL SP quality
- Under 7.5 at 22.1% edge in GREEN zone (66.7% historical WR on similar 20%+ under edges)
- Market implied 69% home win prob vs model 54.3% = massive disconnect suggesting sharp money has Dobbins information model lacks
- Model projects 6.0 total on 7.5 market = 1.5 run gap (substantial)
Risk Factors
- Away ML 30% edge in RED zone (41.1% WR) — classic overconfidence signal; market's 69% home seems reasonable given Dobbins unknown status
- TBD pitcher (Dobbins) = data integrity risk; model may be wrong on entire matchup if Dobbins is weak
- Sharp consensus heavily favoring home despite model edge — suggests market knows something model doesn't
TBD PITCHERHIGH EDGE WARNINGRED ZONEWEATHER IMPACTSHARP OPPOSITION
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
PIT 50.1%
-30.8 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-30.8 pts
Total
7.5
+22.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →