FINAL: TOR 2 — KC 13. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected TOR 3.0 - KC 3.4 (KC at 50.3% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 6.3 total runs.
TOR
3.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
KC
3.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
TORKC
+1.5
Run Line (TOR)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
KCTOR W4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 48.5% (3,503 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
KC
135
TOR
135
Projected
TOR 3.0 — KC 3.4
Actual
TOR 2 — KC 13
Pick Results
KC @ TOR F5 UNDER 4.5f5WIN+1.33u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Noah Cameron L
KC
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF25%92 mph13% whiff
CH21%81 mph34% whiff
FC21%90 mph19% whiff
Spencer Arrighetti R
TOR
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
CU34%77 mph35% whiff
FF30%92 mph19% whiff
ST12%80 mph25% whiff
Weather Impact
Rogers Centre
76°F10 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.012 Total: 1.005
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
KC
4.84ERA
5.04FIP
7.81K/9
4.84BB/9
1.51WHIP
TOR
3.64ERA
4.12FIP
8.40K/9
3.80BB/9
1.30WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-25.4% EV
-104
F5 UNDER 4.5
+19.7% EV
-114
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
+14.6% EV
-118
F5_ML HOME
-9.1% EV
+106
NRFI NRFI
+7.5% EV
-125
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-6.2% EV
+146
First 5 Innings & NRFI
KC F5
1.9 runs
44.6% win
TOR F5
1.5 runs
33.9% win
F5 Total
3.4
NRFI
63.4%
YRFI
36.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.71
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.9
Over 0.5 HR
84%
Over 1.5 HR
55%
No HR
16%
Jac Caglianone KC30.0%
ISO: 0.218 | Barrel: 12.2% | vs Spencer Arrighetti | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Kazuma Okamoto TOR23.9%
ISO: 0.240 | Barrel: 11.9% | vs Noah Cameron | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Bobby Witt Jr. KC23.7%
ISO: 0.162 | Barrel: 8.5% | vs Spencer Arrighetti | Park: 1.01x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Noah Cameron
0.0 K projected
KC | K/9: 0.0
Spencer Arrighetti
0.0 K projected
TOR | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
KC8 injured
Michael Massey 2B7-DAY IL
Tony Gonsolin SP15-DAY-IL
Nick Mears RP60-DAY-IL
Carlos Estevez RP60-DAY-IL
Maikel Garcia 3B10-DAY-IL
Beck Way RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
TOR8 injured
Yimi Garcia RP60-DAY-IL
Jameson Taillon SP15-DAY-IL
Shane Bieber SP15-DAY-IL
Josh Smith 2B10-DAY-IL
Joe Mantiply RP60-DAY-IL
Trey Yesavage SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +2
Model projects 6.33 total with market at 8.5 (2.17 run gap, largest of the slate). Low-scoring pitcher duel setup (Arrighetti 5.11 ERA, Cameron 4.34 ERA, both mid-tier) compounded by TOR's dominant bullpen (3.64 ERA vs KC's 4.84 ERA, +1.20 run edge) efficiently closes out games and suppresses late-inning scoring.
Key Factors
- Total edge: Model 6.33 vs market 8.5 = +14.6% edge, the widest run gap on the slate
- Bullpen advantage: TOR 3.64 ERA vs KC 4.84 ERA = +1.20 runs in late-game efficiency (TOR quality score 1.236 vs KC 0.93)
- NRFI edge: +7.5% (59.7% model prob), historically well-supported
- F5 UNDER 4.5: +19.7% edge (63.7% model prob), elite runnable market
- Both starters sub-5.5 ERA with modest K-rates (22.6% TOR, 21.3% KC) suggest a grinding, low-scoring affair
Risk Factors
- Pickem line (-102/-106) means market sees a true coin flip on winner, so directional ML plays carry uncertainty
- KC power bats (Bobby Witt Jr. 23.7% HR prob, Jac Caglianone 30% HR prob) can produce sudden run bursts
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
KC 50.3%
-2.9 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-2.9 pts
Total
8.5
+14.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.