FINAL: DET 1 — LAD 2. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected DET 3.3 - LAD 4.4 (LAD at 54.1% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 7.7 total runs.
DET
3.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
LAD
4.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
DETLAD
+1.5
Run Line (DET)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.8% (3,503 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
LAD
246
DET
135
Projected
DET 3.3 — LAD 4.4
Actual
DET 1 — LAD 2
Pick Results
LAD @ DET F5 UNDER 3.5f5WIN+0.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Tarik Skubal L
LAD
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF36%97 mph21% whiff
CH26%87 mph48% whiff
SI20%97 mph15% whiff
Drew Anderson R
DET
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF40%96 mph18% whiff
CH30%90 mph35% whiff
CU23%80 mph33% whiff
Weather Impact
Comerica Park
76°F7 mph wind
HR: 1.015 Total: 1.006
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
LAD
3.96ERA
3.88FIP
10.11K/9
4.18BB/9
1.27WHIP
DET
3.99ERA
4.55FIP
8.48K/9
4.16BB/9
1.30WHIP
Betting Edges
F5_ML AWAY
-10.9% EV
-222
ML HOME
+7.7% EV
+162
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-7.5% EV
-102
ML AWAY
-7.5% EV
-175
TOTAL OVER 7.5
-6.0% EV
+102
F5_ML HOME
+4.9% EV
+172
First 5 Innings & NRFI
LAD F5
2.3 runs
48.1% win
DET F5
1.7 runs
33.6% win
F5 Total
4.0
NRFI
62.1%
YRFI
38.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.74
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.0
Over 0.5 HR
86%
Over 1.5 HR
59%
No HR
14%
Shohei Ohtani LAD30.0%
ISO: 0.247 | Barrel: 14.8% | vs Drew Anderson | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Max Muncy LAD28.2%
ISO: 0.248 | Barrel: 14.3% | vs Drew Anderson | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Eduardo Valencia DET26.5%
ISO: 0.429 | Barrel: 19.7% | vs Tarik Skubal | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Tarik Skubal
0.0 K projected
LAD | K/9: 0.0
Drew Anderson
0.0 K projected
DET | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
LAD8 injured
Justin Wrobleski SP15-DAY-IL
Roki Sasaki SP15-DAY-IL
Gavin Stone SP60-DAY-IL
Will Smith C60-DAY-IL
Jake Cousins RP60-DAY-IL
Andy Pages CF10-DAY-IL
+2 more
DET8 injured
Brant Hurter RP60-DAY-IL
Riley Greene LF10-DAY-IL
Jack Flaherty SP15-DAY-IL
Kerry Carpenter RF10-DAY-IL
Wenceel Perez RF60-DAY-IL
Will Vest RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1
Home underdog (DET) faces ace-vs-above-average mismatch (Skubal 3.14 ERA elite vs Anderson 4.42 ERA above-average); model underprices DET home field advantage, and historically well-supported home ML (a supportive track record) provides statistical support despite market expectation of LAD dominance.
Key Factors
- Pitcher elite-vs-above-average: Skubal 3.14 ERA (elite) vs Anderson 4.42 ERA (above-avg). 1.3 ERA gap.
- Home field: DET at home, neutral park (1.0 factor), 76F, wind neutral. Home bullpen 3.99 ERA above-average.
- historical support GREEN combo (ML home = a supportive track record, n=127): Statistically backs home underdogs in this profile.
- Market pricing: LAD -175 (63.7% implied) standard for road ace; DET +162 (38.2% implied) may be slightly undervalued.
- F5 edge: Model shows +4.9% edge to DET home (38.6% prob).
Risk Factors
- LAD ace Skubal's elite profile can dominate any single game.
- Edge is modest (7.7%) within a small-sample historical support.
- LAD power bats (Ohtani 30% HR prob, Muncy 28.2% HR prob) can break games open.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
LAD 54.1%
-1.4 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-1.4 pts
Total
7.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.