BOS vs NYY prediction for August 28, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects NYY 4.5 - BOS 4.1. NYY is favored with a 55.7% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.0. Model projects 8.7 total runs.
NYY
4.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.0
BOS
4.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYYBOS
-1.5
Run Line (NYY)
7.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 61.6% (3,503 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
BOS
246
NYY
346
Projected
NYY 4.5 — BOS 4.1
Actual
NYY 1 — BOS 0
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Patrick Sandoval L
BOS
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SL26%87 mph24% whiff
CH25%84 mph41% whiff
FF20%94 mph11% whiff
Cam Schlittler R
NYY
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF44%98 mph31% whiff
FC26%95 mph20% whiff
SI20%98 mph14% whiff
Weather Impact
Yankee Stadium
75°F4 mph wind
HR: 1.022 Total: 1.011
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
BOS
3.14ERA
3.43FIP
9.55K/9
3.09BB/9
1.21WHIP
NYY
3.07ERA
4.01FIP
8.54K/9
3.57BB/9
1.22WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
BOS F5
2.2 runs
37.3% win
NYY F5
2.6 runs
47.4% win
F5 Total
4.9
NRFI
56.1%
YRFI
43.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.92
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
BOS8 injured
Trevor Story SS60-DAY-IL
Roman Anthony LF60-DAY-IL
Curtis Mead 3B10-DAY-IL
Garrett Whitlock RP15-DAY-IL
Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2B60-DAY-IL
Garrett Crochet SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
NYY8 injured
Clarke Schmidt SP60-DAY-IL
Fernando Cruz RP15-DAY-IL
Kervin Castro RP60-DAY-IL
Aaron Judge RF60-DAY-IL
Max Fried SP15-DAY-IL
Giancarlo Stanton DH60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.