TEX vs MIL prediction for August 28, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects MIL 3.8 - TEX 3.8. MIL is favored with a 52.6% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 7.6 total runs.
MIL
3.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
TEX
3.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
MILTEX
-1.5
Run Line (MIL)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 56.7% (3,503 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TEX
246
MIL
246
Projected
MIL 3.8 — TEX 3.8
Actual
MIL 6 — TEX 1
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Cody Bradford L
TEX
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF50%88 mph15% whiff
CH36%81 mph24% whiff
SL8%80 mph10% whiff
Logan Henderson R
MIL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF46%93 mph17% whiff
CH33%83 mph35% whiff
FC18%88 mph17% whiff
Weather Impact
American Family Field
79°F7 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 0.999 Total: 0.997
thin air, 7mph in
Bullpen Comparison
TEX
4.27ERA
4.37FIP
8.55K/9
3.73BB/9
1.33WHIP
MIL
3.21ERA
3.52FIP
9.20K/9
3.62BB/9
1.22WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TEX F5
2.0 runs
42.0% win
MIL F5
2.0 runs
39.5% win
F5 Total
4.0
NRFI
58.4%
YRFI
41.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.81
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
TEX8 injured
Nathan Eovaldi SP15-DAY-IL
Jack Leiter SP60-DAY-IL
Robert Garcia RP60-DAY-IL
Kyle Higashioka C10-DAY-IL
Josh Jung 3B10-DAY-IL
Jose Corniell RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
MIL8 injured
Dustin May SPDAY-TO-DAY
JoJo Romero RP15-DAY-IL
Abner Uribe RP15-DAY-IL
Brandon Woodruff SP60-DAY-IL
Joel Kuhnel RP15-DAY-IL
Rob Zastryzny RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.