SD vs TB prediction for August 28, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects TB 3.9 - SD 3.8. TB is favored with a 52.9% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 7.7 total runs.
TB
3.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
SD
3.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
TBSD
-1.5
Run Line (TB)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 56.7% (3,503 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SD
246
TB
246
Projected
TB 3.9 — SD 3.8
Actual
TB 9 — SD 4
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Casey Mize R
SD
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF34%93 mph19% whiff
SL27%88 mph25% whiff
FS24%88 mph30% whiff
Shane McClanahan L
TB
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF39%96 mph15% whiff
CH28%87 mph36% whiff
SL18%88 mph28% whiff
Weather Impact
Tropicana Field
82°F4 mph windRoof: closed
HR: 1.000 Total: 1.000
Indoor (neutral)
Bullpen Comparison
SD
3.06ERA
3.62FIP
9.69K/9
3.72BB/9
1.20WHIP
TB
3.54ERA
3.86FIP
8.84K/9
2.62BB/9
1.13WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SD F5
2.1 runs
37.7% win
TB F5
2.4 runs
45.6% win
F5 Total
4.5
NRFI
54.8%
YRFI
45.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.92
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
SD8 injured
Jeremiah Estrada RP15-DAY-IL
Nick Pivetta SP60-DAY-IL
Joe Musgrove SP60-DAY-IL
Lucas Giolito SP60-DAY-IL
Jason Adam RP60-DAY-IL
Miguel Andujar DH10-DAY-IL
+2 more
TB8 injured
Jake Fraley RF60-DAY-IL
Griffin Jax SP15-DAY-IL
Cole Sulser RP15-DAY-IL
Edwin Uceta RP60-DAY-IL
Gavin Lux LF60-DAY-IL
Ben Williamson 2B10-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.