HOU vs NYM prediction for August 28, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects NYM 3.0 - HOU 4.1. HOU is favored with a 54.9% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 7.1 total runs.
NYM
3.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
HOU
4.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYMHOU
+1.5
Run Line (NYM)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 59.1% (3,503 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
HOU
246
NYM
135
Projected
NYM 3.0 — HOU 4.1
Actual
NYM 1 — HOU 3
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Hunter Brown R
HOU
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF33%96 mph18% whiff
SI29%96 mph17% whiff
KC20%83 mph34% whiff
Christian Scott R
NYM
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF48%96 mph25% whiff
ST23%81 mph29% whiff
FC18%90 mph24% whiff
Weather Impact
Citi Field
77°F7 mph wind
HR: 1.053 Total: 1.029
6mph out
Bullpen Comparison
HOU
3.59ERA
3.97FIP
9.29K/9
3.53BB/9
1.20WHIP
NYM
4.14ERA
4.24FIP
9.38K/9
4.23BB/9
1.37WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
HOU F5
2.2 runs
48.1% win
NYM F5
1.7 runs
32.8% win
F5 Total
3.9
NRFI
61.6%
YRFI
38.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.74
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
HOU4 injured
Mike Burrows SP15-DAY-IL
Brice Matthews CF60-DAY-IL
Carlos Correa SS60-DAY-IL
Brandon Walter SP60-DAY-IL
NYM8 injured
Juan Soto LF10-DAY-IL
Jorge Polanco DH60-DAY-IL
Mark Vientos 1B10-DAY-IL
Justin Hagenman RP60-DAY-IL
Devin Williams RP15-DAY-IL
Cionel Perez RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.