FINAL: CHC 8 — CIN 10. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected CHC 4.7 - CIN 4.2 (CHC at 57.1% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 8.9 total runs.
CHC
4.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
CIN
4.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
CHCCIN
-1.5
Run Line (CHC)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 64.5% (3,503 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CIN
246
CHC
357
Projected
CHC 4.7 — CIN 4.2
Actual
CHC 8 — CIN 10
Pick Results
CIN @ CHC F5 UNDER 4.5f5LOSS-0.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Rhett Lowder R
CIN
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI29%93 mph6% whiff
SL27%85 mph31% whiff
CH20%86 mph21% whiff
David Peterson L
CHC
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI30%92 mph15% whiff
FF24%92 mph18% whiff
SL23%86 mph27% whiff
Weather Impact
Wrigley Field
79°F6 mph wind
HR: 1.036 Total: 1.018
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
CIN
4.17ERA
4.68FIP
9.03K/9
4.90BB/9
1.39WHIP
CHC
4.10ERA
4.58FIP
8.93K/9
3.95BB/9
1.31WHIP
Betting Edges
F5_ML HOME
-13.0% EV
-189
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-7.9% EV
+106
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-7.2% EV
-122
F5_ML AWAY
+7.0% EV
+148
ML AWAY
+6.9% EV
+176
ML HOME
-6.2% EV
-189
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CIN F5
2.2 runs
39.1% win
CHC F5
2.5 runs
45.4% win
F5 Total
4.8
NRFI
55.0%
YRFI
45.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.95
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.4
Over 0.5 HR
90%
Over 1.5 HR
68%
No HR
10%
Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC30.0%
ISO: 0.291 | Barrel: 15.8% | vs Rhett Lowder | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Seiya Suzuki CHC26.3%
ISO: 0.198 | Barrel: 10.4% | vs Rhett Lowder | Park: 1.03x
Elly De La Cruz CIN26.1%
ISO: 0.298 | Barrel: 10.5% | vs David Peterson | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Rhett Lowder
0.0 K projected
CIN | K/9: 0.0
David Peterson
0.0 K projected
CHC | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
CIN7 injured
Graham Ashcraft RP60-DAY-IL
Brady Singer SPDAY-TO-DAY
Brandon Williamson SP60-DAY-IL
Michael Toglia 1B10-DAY-IL
Spencer Steer 1B10-DAY-IL
Hunter Greene SP60-DAY-IL
+1 more
CHC8 injured
Edward Cabrera SP15-DAY-IL
Ben Brown RP60-DAY-IL
Justin Steele SP60-DAY-IL
Phil Maton RP60-DAY-IL
Gavin Hollowell RP15-DAY-IL
Riley Martin RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1
Both starters carry near-identical sub-5.6 ERA profiles (Peterson 5.58 vs Lowder 5.54) in a narrow model split; historically weak away moneyline (44.3% historical WR) overrides the modest 6.9% edge, and market is correctly pricing near-even quality.
Key Factors
- Pitcher parity: Peterson C+ (5.58 ERA) vs Lowder C+ (5.54 ERA). Both below-average.
- Bullpen similar: CHC 4.1 ERA, CIN 4.17 ERA. No tier advantage.
- historical support combo (MLB | ml | any | away = a supportive track record, n=126). Away moneyline historically loses at this edge level.
- Market pricing: CHC market 65.4% vs model 61.3% — home side slightly overpriced but not actionable.
- Run environment: model 8.89 total vs 8.5 market, negligible 0.39 edge.
Risk Factors
- Away moneyline historically weak: 43.8% historical WR kills edge value.
- Edge calibration warning: 6.9% edge in a weak away historical support provides no reliable value.
- No clear SP mismatch; max ~0.5 run swing either way.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CHC 57.1%
-7.9 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-7.9 pts
Total
8.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.