FINAL: WSH 9 — MIA 2. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected WSH 5.3 - MIA 5.7 (WSH at 52.3% win probability). WSH wins more simulations despite the lower average score. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 11.0 total runs.
WSH
5.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
MIA
5.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
WSHMIA
+1.5
Run Line (WSH)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
MIAWSH W5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.4% (3,503 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIA
468
WSH
357
Projected
WSH 5.3 — MIA 5.7
Actual
WSH 9 — MIA 2
Pick Results
MIA @ WSH F5 OVER 4.5f5WIN+0.96u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Eury Pérez R
MIA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF39%98 mph20% whiff
SI16%98 mph15% whiff
SL16%88 mph40% whiff
Jackson Kent L
WSH
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF41%93 mph8% whiff
CH24%86 mph33% whiff
SL23%87 mph21% whiff
Weather Impact
Nationals Park
82°F4 mph wind
HR: 1.021 Total: 1.010
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
MIA
4.20ERA
3.83FIP
9.91K/9
4.24BB/9
1.29WHIP
WSH
5.52ERA
5.22FIP
9.04K/9
4.90BB/9
1.57WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
-19.7% EV
-122
F5 OVER 4.5
+15.8% EV
-102
F5_ML AWAY
-11.9% EV
-159
TOTAL OVER 8.5
+11.8% EV
+100
ML AWAY
-8.9% EV
-139
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-8.4% EV
+118
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIA F5
3.3 runs
45.4% win
WSH F5
3.1 runs
42.7% win
F5 Total
6.4
NRFI
51.4%
YRFI
48.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.09
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.9
Over 0.5 HR
94%
Over 1.5 HR
78%
No HR
6%
Heriberto Hernández MIA30.0%
ISO: 0.130 | Barrel: 13.0% | vs Jackson Kent | Platoon: 1.12x
Andrés Chaparro WSH30.0%
ISO: 0.160 | Barrel: 16.0% | vs Eury Pérez
CJ Abrams WSH30.0%
ISO: 0.267 | Barrel: 14.1% | vs Eury Pérez | Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Eury Pérez
0.0 K projected
MIA | K/9: 0.0
Jackson Kent
0.0 K projected
WSH | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
MIA8 injured
Pete Fairbanks RP15-DAY-IL
Andrew Nardi RP60-DAY-IL
Max Meyer SP15-DAY-IL
Anthony Bender RP15-DAY-IL
William Kempner RP60-DAY-IL
Robby Snelling SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
WSH8 injured
Josiah Gray SP60-DAY-IL
Connelly Early SP60-DAY-IL
James Wood RF10-DAY-IL
DJ Herz SP60-DAY-IL
Drew Millas C10-DAY-IL
Richard Lovelady RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +2
Extreme SP quality delta (Kent 8.67 ERA, C- = disaster vs Pérez 3.42 ERA, B- = reliable) plus warm weather (82.2F) and a large TOTAL OVER edge (11.8%, model 55.9% vs 44.1% market) — market has massively underpriced the run environment created by Kent's catastrophic pitching.
Key Factors
- SP mismatch historic: Kent 8.67 ERA (C-) vs Pérez 3.42 ERA (B-). 5.25 ERA gap = ~3 run swing.
- Model total 11.02 vs market 8.5 = +2.52 run differential — extreme mispricing.
- Warm weather: 82.2F, humid (69%), park factor 1.0 neutral. F5 model 6.41 runs = offensive early slant.
- Bullpen split: WSH 5.52 ERA (weakest in NL) vs MIA 4.2 ERA (middle) — WSH bullpen liability compounds Kent's issues.
- F5 OVER edge also strong (15.8%, model 58.5%) confirming early scoring likely.
Risk Factors
- High-edge total bets historically underperform (10-15% edge historical support WR 38.9%); recommend moderated units despite pitcher catastrophe justification.
- Weather swing: If temp drops or wind shifts, run projection could soften by 0.5 runs.
- If MIA rests Alvarez or WSH makes late lineup change, exposure changes.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
WSH 52.3%
-1.4 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-1.4 pts
Total
8.5
+11.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.