COL vs ATL prediction for August 28, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects ATL 4.8 - COL 4.5. ATL is favored with a 55.1% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 9.3 total runs.
ATL
4.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
COL
4.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
ATLCOL
-1.5
Run Line (ATL)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 59.1% (3,503 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
COL
346
ATL
357
Projected
ATL 4.8 — COL 4.5
Actual
ATL 6 — COL 4
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Tomoyuki Sugano R
COL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FS22%87 mph30% whiff
FF20%92 mph14% whiff
SI19%92 mph2% whiff
Grant Holmes R
ATL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SL37%85 mph37% whiff
FF28%94 mph12% whiff
SI12%93 mph14% whiff
Weather Impact
Truist Park
78°F13 mph wind
HR: 0.978 Total: 0.984
thin air, 13mph in
Bullpen Comparison
COL
4.82ERA
4.28FIP
7.55K/9
3.90BB/9
1.49WHIP
ATL
3.05ERA
3.34FIP
9.77K/9
3.25BB/9
1.15WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
COL F5
2.7 runs
40.4% win
ATL F5
2.9 runs
45.7% win
F5 Total
5.6
NRFI
49.7%
YRFI
50.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.14
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
COL8 injured
Kyle Freeland SP15-DAY-IL
Kyle Karros 3B7-DAY IL
Jose Quintana SP60-DAY-IL
Chase Dollander SP60-DAY-IL
Welinton Herrera RP60-DAY-IL
McCade Brown SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
ATL7 injured
Robert Suarez RP15-DAY-IL
Joe Jimenez RP60-DAY-IL
Reynaldo Lopez RP15-DAY-IL
Spencer Schwellenbach SP60-DAY-IL
Spencer Strider SP60-DAY-IL
Jurickson Profar LFSUSPENSION
+1 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.