FINAL: DET 7 — MIN 2. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected DET 3.9 - MIN 3.2 (DET at 60.3% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 7.1 total runs.
DET
3.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
MIN
3.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
DETMIN
-1.5
Run Line (DET)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
MINDET W4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 61.0% (3,835 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIN
135
DET
246
Projected
DET 3.9 — MIN 3.2
Actual
DET 7 — MIN 2
Pick Results
DET MLmlWIN+0.41u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Zebby Matthews R
MIN
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF36%95 mph11% whiff
SL22%87 mph32% whiff
CH13%87 mph16% whiff
Keider Montero R
DET
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF31%94 mph11% whiff
SI22%95 mph8% whiff
SL19%86 mph26% whiff
Weather Impact
Comerica Park
79°F8 mph wind
HR: 1.035 Total: 1.017
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
MIN
4.41ERA
4.09FIP
9.14K/9
4.06BB/9
1.38WHIP
DET
4.24ERA
4.63FIP
8.40K/9
4.31BB/9
1.32WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
+24.6% EV
-103
NRFI YRFI
-17.8% EV
-115
F5_ML AWAY
-14.6% EV
+110
F5 UNDER 4.5
+10.0% EV
-110
ML AWAY
-9.7% EV
+117
NRFI NRFI
+6.5% EV
-111
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIN F5
1.6 runs
31.4% win
DET F5
2.3 runs
50.3% win
F5 Total
3.9
NRFI
59.1%
YRFI
40.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.81
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.2
Over 0.5 HR
88%
Over 1.5 HR
64%
No HR
12%
Riley Greene DET30.0%
ISO: 0.203 | Barrel: 9.7% | vs Zebby Matthews | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Kody Clemens MIN27.3%
ISO: 0.249 | Barrel: 13.2% | vs Keider Montero | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Kevin McGonigle DET26.3%
ISO: 0.168 | Barrel: 7.3% | vs Zebby Matthews | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Zebby Matthews
0.0 K projected
MIN | K/9: 0.0
Keider Montero
0.0 K projected
DET | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
MIN8 injured
Austin Martin RF10-DAY-IL
Byron Buxton CF10-DAY-IL
Mike Paredes SP60-DAY-IL
Cole Sands RP60-DAY-IL
David Festa SP60-DAY-IL
Mick Abel SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
DET8 injured
Jack Flaherty SP15-DAY-IL
Matt Vierling CF60-DAY-IL
Kerry Carpenter RF10-DAY-IL
Wenceel Perez RF60-DAY-IL
Will Vest RP60-DAY-IL
Justin Verlander SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +1
DET home favorite backed by superior starting pitcher (Montero 3.80 ERA vs Matthews 5.07 ERA, 1.27 ERA gap) with model edge (60.3% vs 55.9% market implied) landing in the historically profitable 0-5% home-favorite historical support.
Key Factors
- SP mismatch: Montero 3.80 ERA vs Matthews 5.07 ERA = 1.27 ERA gap favoring DET
- historical support WR: 0-5% home-favorite edge = 57.3%
- Park: Comerica neutral (1.035 HR mult, 1.017 total mult)
- Weather: 78.7F, 8.2mph wind — optimal conditions, no run suppression
- Momentum: DET beat MIN 7-2 yesterday, psychological edge continues
Risk Factors
- Edge is thin (4.5%) — margin for error is small
- Both pitchers carry same 8.0 K-rate baseline in sim, so mismatch is ERA-driven not stuff-driven
- Small underlying historical support sample limits confidence precision
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
DET 60.3%
+3.8 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+3.8 pts
Total
8.5
+24.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.