TEX vs SEA prediction for September 9, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SEA 5.0 - TEX 4.7. SEA is favored with a 54.1% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 9.8 total runs.
SEA
5.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
TEX
4.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
SEATEX
-1.5
Run Line (SEA)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.5% (3,835 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TEX
357
SEA
357
Projected
SEA 5.0 — TEX 4.7
Actual
SEA 3 — TEX 2
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Cody Bradford L
TEX
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF54%88 mph13% whiff
CH32%81 mph17% whiff
SL10%80 mph15% whiff
Kade Anderson L
SEA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF40%94 mph21% whiff
SL26%88 mph21% whiff
CH18%85 mph18% whiff
Weather Impact
T-Mobile Park
73°F7 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.015 Total: 1.007
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
TEX
4.26ERA
4.44FIP
8.44K/9
3.74BB/9
1.32WHIP
SEA
4.06ERA
4.16FIP
8.69K/9
3.34BB/9
1.32WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TEX F5
2.7 runs
39.2% win
SEA F5
3.1 runs
47.6% win
F5 Total
5.8
NRFI
48.3%
YRFI
51.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.22
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
TEX8 injured
Josh Jung 3B10-DAY-IL
Nathan Eovaldi SP15-DAY-IL
Jack Leiter SP60-DAY-IL
Kyle Higashioka C10-DAY-IL
Cole Winn RP15-DAY-IL
Peyton Gray RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
SEA8 injured
Nick Davila RP60-DAY-IL
Matt Brash RP60-DAY-IL
Brendan Donovan 3B7-DAY IL
Brennen Davis CF60-DAY-IL
Colt Emerson SS60-DAY-IL
Emerson Hancock SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.