FINAL: OAK 2 — TOR 0. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected OAK 5.7 - TOR 5.9 (TOR at 50.1% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.5. Model projects 11.6 total runs.
OAK
5.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.5
TOR
5.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
OAKTOR
+1.5
Run Line (OAK)
9.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
TOROAK W5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 49.7% (3,835 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TOR
468
OAK
468
Projected
OAK 5.7 — TOR 5.9
Actual
OAK 2 — TOR 0
Pick Results
OAK MLmlWIN+0.75u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Braydon Fisher R
TOR
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SL49%88 mph29% whiff
CU29%81 mph20% whiff
FF18%94 mph20% whiff
Brady Basso L
OAK
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF44%93 mph13% whiff
CU19%78 mph38% whiff
SL18%84 mph22% whiff
Weather Impact
Sutter Health Park
93°F6 mph wind
HR: 1.003 Total: 0.999
thin air, 6mph in
Bullpen Comparison
TOR
3.46ERA
4.10FIP
8.39K/9
3.89BB/9
1.28WHIP
OAK
5.04ERA
4.36FIP
9.77K/9
4.64BB/9
1.54WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 9.5
+20.4% EV
+104
ML HOME
+15.1% EV
+150
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-13.8% EV
-104
F5_ML AWAY
-13.5% EV
-156
ML AWAY
-13.1% EV
-164
NRFI NRFI
-9.5% EV
+102
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TOR F5
3.3 runs
43.9% win
OAK F5
3.3 runs
44.3% win
F5 Total
6.7
NRFI
44.0%
YRFI
56.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.39
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.5
Over 0.5 HR
97%
Over 1.5 HR
86%
No HR
3%
Max Muncy OAK24.1%
ISO: 0.239 | Barrel: 13.7% | vs Braydon Fisher | Park: 0.94x
Zack Gelof OAK21.6%
ISO: 0.207 | Barrel: 12.1% | vs Braydon Fisher | Park: 0.94x
Kazuma Okamoto TOR20.0%
ISO: 0.268 | Barrel: 12.7% | vs Brady Basso | Park: 0.94x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Braydon Fisher
0.0 K projected
TOR | K/9: 0.0
Brady Basso
0.0 K projected
OAK | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
TOR8 injured
Anthony Santander RF60-DAY-IL
Trey Yesavage SP15-DAY-IL
Cody Ponce SP60-DAY-IL
Patrick Corbin SP60-DAY-IL
Shane Bieber SP15-DAY-IL
Jameson Taillon SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
OAK8 injured
Shea Langeliers C10-DAY-IL
J.T. Ginn SP15-DAY-IL
Joshua Kuroda-Grauer 3B60-DAY-IL
Jacob Wilson SS60-DAY-IL
Nick Kurtz 1B60-DAY-IL
Tyler Soderstrom LF60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN
Model shows 20.4% OVER edge (11.6 projected runs vs 9.5 market total), but totals market is systemically DISABLED (-46u losses, 0/3 windows positive) and historical support WR is breakeven (50.1%, n=341) — high edge here likely reflects model overconfidence rather than real value.
Key Factors
- Model vs market: 11.6 vs 9.5 runs = 2.1 run gap, 20.4% edge pct
- historical support WR breakeven: 50.1% — no historical edge supports totals bets generally
- Temperature 92.7F adds runs, but 6.5mph wind blowing IN suppresses fly balls, partially offsetting heat
- Pitchers: Basso (OAK) 4.67 ERA vs Fisher (TOR) 3.46 ERA — moderate mismatch favoring TOR pitching, which argues against a huge over
- Calibration cap: max_edge_cap for totals is 12.0 in system config, this 20.4% raw edge would be capped anyway
Risk Factors
- CALIBRATION RED FLAG: totals market disabled system-wide due to catastrophic losses
- High edge (20%+) historically correlates with WORST win rates per calibration principles
- Wind blowing IN (6.4mph tailwind negative) works against the OVER case despite the heat
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
TOR 50.1%
+8.7 pts
Run Line
+1.5
+8.7 pts
Total
9.5
+20.4 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.