NYM vs CWS prediction for August 22, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CWS 5.9 - NYM 4.7. CWS is favored with a 58.5% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 10.6 total runs.
CWS
5.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
NYM
4.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
CWSNYM
+1.5
Run Line (CWS)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 63.4% (3,320 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYM
357
CWS
468
Projected
CWS 5.9 — NYM 4.7
Actual
CWS 5 — NYM 10
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Christian Scott R
NYM
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF48%96 mph26% whiff
ST23%81 mph29% whiff
FC18%90 mph22% whiff
Luis Castillo R
CWS
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF42%95 mph25% whiff
SL25%86 mph26% whiff
SI18%96 mph9% whiff
Weather Impact
Rate Field
77°F12 mph wind
HR: 1.096 Total: 1.053
thin air, 12mph out
Bullpen Comparison
NYM
4.19ERA
4.30FIP
9.24K/9
4.22BB/9
1.37WHIP
CWS
4.03ERA
4.33FIP
9.18K/9
4.55BB/9
1.36WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYM F5
2.6 runs
32.3% win
CWS F5
3.7 runs
55.1% win
F5 Total
6.2
NRFI
48.5%
YRFI
51.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.17
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
NYM8 injured
Jorge Polanco DH10-DAY-IL
Mark Vientos 1B10-DAY-IL
Justin Hagenman RP60-DAY-IL
Juan Soto LF10-DAY-IL
Devin Williams RP15-DAY-IL
Cionel Perez RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
CWSHealthy
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.