STL vs PHI prediction for August 22, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects PHI 4.9 - STL 4.9. PHI is favored with a 51.8% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 9.8 total runs.
PHI
4.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
STL
4.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
PHISTL
-1.5
Run Line (PHI)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (3,320 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
STL
357
PHI
357
Projected
PHI 4.9 — STL 4.9
Actual
PHI 12 — STL 3
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Quinn Mathews L
STL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF48%94 mph32% whiff
SL20%86 mph35% whiff
CH18%83 mph35% whiff
Andrew Painter R
PHI
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF33%96 mph10% whiff
SL20%88 mph36% whiff
ST15%83 mph22% whiff
Weather Impact
Citizens Bank Park
76°F8 mph wind
HR: 1.044 Total: 1.024
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
STL
4.27ERA
4.36FIP
7.99K/9
4.25BB/9
1.35WHIP
PHI
4.40ERA
3.86FIP
10.34K/9
3.66BB/9
1.37WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
STL F5
2.7 runs
41.9% win
PHI F5
2.8 runs
44.1% win
F5 Total
5.5
NRFI
51.3%
YRFI
48.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.09
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
STL6 injured
Hunter Dobbins SP15-DAY-IL
Masyn Winn SSDAY-TO-DAY
Everson Pereira RFOUT
Andre Pallante SP15-DAY-IL
Ramon Urias 3B60-DAY-IL
Max Rajcic RP60-DAY-IL
PHI7 injured
Felix Reyes LF60-DAY-IL
Tanner Banks RP60-DAY-IL
Rafael Marchan C10-DAY-IL
Caleb Kilian RP15-DAY-IL
Brad Keller RP60-DAY-IL
Johan Rojas CF60-DAY-IL
+1 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.