FINAL: BAL 3 — TB 2. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected BAL 4.0 - TB 3.8 (BAL at 52.0% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 7.8 total runs.
BAL
4.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
TB
3.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
BALTB
+1.5
Run Line (BAL)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
TB L4BAL W4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (3,320 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TB
246
BAL
246
Projected
BAL 4.0 — TB 3.8
Actual
BAL 3 — TB 2
Pick Results
TB @ BAL NRFInrfiWIN+0.39u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Shane McClanahan L
TB
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF38%96 mph14% whiff
CH29%87 mph37% whiff
SL18%88 mph27% whiff
Brandon Young R
BAL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF40%94 mph18% whiff
FS19%84 mph24% whiff
SL15%84 mph42% whiff
Weather Impact
Oriole Park at Camden Yards
75°F5 mph wind
HR: 1.017 Total: 1.008
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
TB
3.88ERA
4.11FIP
8.69K/9
2.79BB/9
1.19WHIP
BAL
4.37ERA
3.90FIP
8.73K/9
3.72BB/9
1.33WHIP
Betting Edges
F5_ML AWAY
-15.8% EV
-135
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-12.8% EV
+125
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-12.6% EV
-105
F5_ML HOME
+7.4% EV
+108
ML AWAY
-6.0% EV
-122
ML HOME
+3.4% EV
+114
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TB F5
2.0 runs
37.1% win
BAL F5
2.4 runs
45.6% win
F5 Total
4.4
NRFI
59.7%
YRFI
40.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.83
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.1
Over 0.5 HR
87%
Over 1.5 HR
61%
No HR
13%
Junior Caminero TB30.0%
ISO: 0.275 | Barrel: 14.9% | vs Brandon Young | Park: 1.03x
Christian Encarnacion-Strand BAL30.0%
ISO: 0.406 | Barrel: 14.2% | vs Shane McClanahan | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Pete Alonso BAL30.0%
ISO: 0.189 | Barrel: 13.2% | vs Shane McClanahan | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Shane McClanahan
0.0 K projected
TB | K/9: 0.0
Brandon Young
0.0 K projected
BAL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
TB8 injured
Cole Sulser RP15-DAY-IL
Griffin Jax SP15-DAY-IL
Manuel Rodriguez RP60-DAY-IL
Edwin Uceta RP60-DAY-IL
Jake Fraley RF60-DAY-IL
Gavin Lux LF60-DAY-IL
+2 more
BAL8 injured
Felix Bautista RP60-DAY-IL
Blaze Alexander 3B10-DAY-IL
Ryan Helsley RP60-DAY-IL
Colin Selby RP60-DAY-IL
Ryan Mountcastle 1B60-DAY-IL
Keegan Akin RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1
UNDER 8.5 value: Model projects 7.75 total runs vs market 8.5 (3.2% edge). Both starters are quality mid-tier arms: Brandon Young (3.80 ERA, 18.7% K-rate) faces Shane McClanahan (3.51 ERA, 21.8% K-rate). Bullpens favor TB (3.88 ERA) over BAL (4.37 ERA). NRFI edge 1.8% also supports the under lean.
Key Factors
- Bullpen edge: TB 3.88 ERA vs BAL 4.37 ERA = 0.49 ERA advantage
- Model-market gap: 7.75 vs 8.5 = 0.75-run edge to UNDER (3.2% edge)
- Starter quality: Young 3.80 / McClanahan 3.51 both respectable, moderate scoring expected
- Weather: 74.9°F, 4.6 mph wind neutral — no temperature boost
- NRFI edge 1.8%: First inning avg 0.83 runs suggests controlled start
Risk Factors
- Totals disabled in calibration: historical WR only 50.3%, needs >12% edge to qualify
- BAL bullpen vulnerability (4.37 ERA) could allow late TB runaway if game stays close
- Small edge magnitude (3.2%) warrants reduced unit sizing
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
BAL 52.0%
+2.3 pts
Run Line
+1.5
+2.3 pts
Total
8.5
+3.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.