NYM vs PHI prediction for July 16, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects PHI 6.6 - NYM 5.5. PHI is favored with a 56.6% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 9.5. Model projects 12.1 total runs.
PHI
6.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.5
NYM
5.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
PHINYM
-1.5
Run Line (PHI)
9.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.8% (2,808 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYM
467
PHI
579
Projected
PHI 6.6 — NYM 5.5
Actual
PHI 1 — NYM 4
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Christian Scott R
NYM
FF50%95 mph25% whiff
ST23%81 mph32% whiff
FC18%89 mph17% whiff
Aaron Nola R
PHI
KC34%78 mph38% whiff
FF24%92 mph13% whiff
SI20%92 mph10% whiff
Weather Impact
Citizens Bank Park
97°F12 mph wind
HR: 0.992 Total: 0.992
thin air, 10mph in
Bullpen Comparison
NYM
3.44ERA
3.69FIP
9.32K/9
3.58BB/9
1.21WHIP
PHI
4.19ERA
3.22FIP
10.30K/9
3.17BB/9
1.34WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-40.8% EV
-175
TOTAL UNDER 9.5
-32.3% EV
-110
TOTAL OVER 9.5
+23.3% EV
-110
F5 OVER 5.5
+22.6% EV
-102
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
+14.4% EV
+146
F5_ML AWAY
-10.3% EV
+100
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYM F5
3.4 runs
39.2% win
PHI F5
4.0 runs
49.9% win
F5 Total
7.4
NRFI
37.6%
YRFI
62.4%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.58
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.1
Over 0.5 HR
95%
Over 1.5 HR
81%
No HR
5%
Juan Soto NYM30.0%
ISO: 0.287 | Barrel: 18.1% | vs Aaron Nola | Park: 1.02x Platoon: 1.12x
Kyle Schwarber PHI30.0%
ISO: 0.319 | Barrel: 20.8% | vs Christian Scott | Park: 1.02x Platoon: 1.12x
Bryce Harper PHI30.0%
ISO: 0.301 | Barrel: 12.3% | vs Christian Scott | Park: 1.02x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Christian Scott
0.0 K projected
NYM | K/9: 0.0
Aaron Nola
0.0 K projected
PHI | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
NYM8 injured
Justin Hagenman RP60-DAY-IL
Luis Robert Jr. CF60-DAY-IL
Bo Bichette SSDAY-TO-DAY
Clay Holmes SP60-DAY-IL
Mark Vientos 1B10-DAY-IL
Austin Warren RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
PHI5 injured
Brad Keller RP15-DAY-IL
Tanner Banks RP15-DAY-IL
Lou Trivino RP15-DAY-IL
Johan Rojas CF60-DAY-IL
Adolis Garcia RF60-DAY-IL
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1YELLOW ZONE50.1% WR (n=341)
Model overconfident on massive 23.3% OVER edge despite 2.79 ERA pitcher advantage to NYM; YELLOW zone historicals show 50.1% WR on high-edge totals — market pricing correct on both sides despite superior away pitcher.
Key Factors
- Pitcher mismatch AGAINST PHI: Christian Scott 3.42 ERA vs Aaron Nola 6.21 ERA (2.79 pt advantage to away team = typically 10-12% win prob swing)
- Model contradicts pitcher edge: Awards PHI 56.6% win prob despite Nola's ERA disadvantage — suggests model overweighting home field (~+10%, unusually high)
- OVER 9.5 edge 23.3% in YELLOW zone: Historical WR 50.1% (n=341) — high-edge totals are money pits per calibration study
- Wind suppression not fully priced: -10.2 mph tail wind at Citizens Bank should reduce runs by 0.5-1.0 vs baseline; model total 12.12 seems inflated by ~1.5-2 runs
- Post-ASB volatility: First game after All-Star break — lineup adjustments, jet lag, and trading-deadline uncertainty all present
Risk Factors
- Model overconfidence on 23.3% edge: Calibration shows edges 15%+ have inverse correlation with WR; this 23.3% likely overfit
- Home ML only 26.3% WR last 30d (n=19): PHI home favorite in a losing market — avoid home favorites at negative or near-zero edges
- High-prob outcomes failing: By_prob|60-65% showing 0% WR (0W-8L) — F5 OVER at 61.9% prob is in failure bucket
HIGH EDGE WARNINGMODEL MARKET CONFLICTPITCHER MISMATCHWEATHER IMPACTYELLOW ZONECALIBRATION CONCERN
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
PHI 56.6%
+14.4 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+14.4 pts
Total
9.5
+23.3 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →