OAK vs SEA prediction for September 4, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SEA 4.1 - OAK 3.6. SEA is favored with a 56.7% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.0. Model projects 7.6 total runs.
SEA
4.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.0
OAK
3.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
SEAOAK
-1.5
Run Line (SEA)
7.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.8% (3,723 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
OAK
246
SEA
246
Projected
SEA 4.1 — OAK 3.6
Actual
SEA 6 — OAK 7
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Kade Morris R
OAK
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI36%94 mph10% whiff
FF19%95 mph7% whiff
SL16%88 mph28% whiff
Logan Gilbert R
SEA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF40%96 mph18% whiff
SL24%87 mph32% whiff
FS14%82 mph39% whiff
Weather Impact
T-Mobile Park
64°F4 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.017 Total: 1.009
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
OAK
5.26ERA
4.33FIP
9.67K/9
4.57BB/9
1.56WHIP
SEA
4.00ERA
4.13FIP
8.58K/9
3.36BB/9
1.33WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
OAK F5
1.9 runs
38.4% win
SEA F5
2.2 runs
43.1% win
F5 Total
4.1
NRFI
62.7%
YRFI
37.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.75
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
OAK8 injured
J.T. Ginn SPDAY-TO-DAY
Tommy White 3BDAY-TO-DAY
Joshua Kuroda-Grauer 3B60-DAY-IL
Jacob Wilson SS60-DAY-IL
Shea Langeliers C10-DAY-IL
Nick Kurtz 1B60-DAY-IL
+2 more
SEA8 injured
Hoby Milner RPBEREAVEMENT
Brendan Donovan 3B7-DAY IL
Brennen Davis CF60-DAY-IL
Victor Robles RFBEREAVEMENT
Colt Emerson SS60-DAY-IL
Nick Davila RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.