OAK vs SEA prediction for September 5, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SEA 5.1 - OAK 4.6. SEA is favored with a 57.1% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 9.7 total runs.
SEA
5.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
OAK
4.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
SEAOAK
-1.5
Run Line (SEA)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 59.9% (3,747 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
OAK
357
SEA
357
Projected
SEA 5.1 — OAK 4.6
Actual
SEA 2 — OAK 6
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Jeffrey Springs L
OAK
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF44%91 mph12% whiff
CH24%80 mph36% whiff
SL24%84 mph20% whiff
George Kirby R
SEA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF29%97 mph20% whiff
ST28%87 mph25% whiff
SI20%97 mph10% whiff
Weather Impact
T-Mobile Park
69°F4 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.013 Total: 1.006
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
OAK
5.24ERA
4.33FIP
9.64K/9
4.58BB/9
1.56WHIP
SEA
3.97ERA
4.12FIP
8.56K/9
3.36BB/9
1.32WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
OAK F5
2.6 runs
37.3% win
SEA F5
3.1 runs
49.0% win
F5 Total
5.7
NRFI
47.7%
YRFI
52.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.20
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
OAK8 injured
J.T. Ginn SPOUT
Tommy White 3BDAY-TO-DAY
Joshua Kuroda-Grauer 3B60-DAY-IL
Jacob Wilson SS60-DAY-IL
Shea Langeliers C10-DAY-IL
Nick Kurtz 1B60-DAY-IL
+2 more
SEA8 injured
Lazaro Montes RFDAY-TO-DAY
Matt Brash RP60-DAY-IL
Hoby Milner RPBEREAVEMENT
Brendan Donovan 3B7-DAY IL
Brennen Davis CF60-DAY-IL
Victor Robles RFBEREAVEMENT
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.