PIT vs DET prediction for September 27, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects DET 3.8 - PIT 3.6. DET is favored with a 53.6% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 7.5 total runs.
DET
3.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
PIT
3.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
DETPIT
+1.5
Run Line (DET)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.6% (4,039 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
PIT
246
DET
246
Projected
DET 3.8 — PIT 3.6
Actual
DET 2 — PIT 4
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Jared Jones R
PIT
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF47%98 mph20% whiff
SL34%90 mph38% whiff
CH11%93 mph37% whiff
River Ryan R
DET
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF33%96 mph0% whiff
CH19%90 mph75% whiff
CU14%82 mph33% whiff
Weather Impact
Comerica Park
75°F10 mph wind
HR: 1.074 Total: 1.041
thin air, 8mph out
Bullpen Comparison
PIT
3.69ERA
3.59FIP
9.60K/9
4.13BB/9
1.27WHIP
DET
4.11ERA
4.48FIP
8.39K/9
4.00BB/9
1.28WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
PIT F5
1.9 runs
38.5% win
DET F5
2.1 runs
42.3% win
F5 Total
4.0
NRFI
59.1%
YRFI
40.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.83
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
PIT6 injured
Oneil Cruz CFDAY-TO-DAY
Mitch Keller SP60-DAY-IL
Braxton Ashcraft SP15-DAY-IL
Esmerlyn Valdez RF10-DAY-IL
Isaac Mattson RP15-DAY-IL
Endy Rodriguez C60-DAY-IL
DET8 injured
Kerry Carpenter RF60-DAY-IL
Burch Smith RP60-DAY-IL
Parker Meadows CF60-DAY-IL
Jack Flaherty SP15-DAY-IL
Colt Keith 3B10-DAY-IL
Troy Melton SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.