SF vs COL Prediction

Tanner Gordon (B-grade, 21.4% K-rate, C+ stuff, elite A- command 84.1% score) is a CONTROL pitcher at home in Coors Field (1.18 park factor — EXTREME run inflation, +18% runs). Tyler Mahle (C+ grade, 6.12 ERA, 22.2% K-rate, C stuff) is a weak away pitcher. Model projects 13.29 total (massive) with market at 13.0 — essentially FAIR. However, the OVER 13.0 edge is 0.5% (52.1% model prob) which is micro. Here's the key insight: Coors Field at 1.18 park factor is THE strongest run-inflating park in baseball. Even weak pitching produces high-scoring games. Model projects 6.66 home runs and 6.63 away runs = 13.29 total. The 95.6F heat is warm but not extreme; 3.3 mph wind is negligible. The TRUE signal is that Coors defaults to OVER bias. Market is at 13.0; model wants 13.29. The gap (0.29 runs) seems too small given the park's inflation. I would LEAN OVER 13.0, but CAUTIOUSLY, because: (1) Gordon's elite command (84.1% score) is elite even for Coors, (2) Mahle's weak stuff might help suppress despite park inflation, (3) high edges on Coors games historically underperform due to closing line value (sharps bet overs relentlessly). Still, Coors has such a strong baseline that OVER 13.0 is the lean.